NFL Player Props Week 14: Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets
NFL Player Props Week 14: Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets
I mentioned on Thursday when I was breaking down this slate how excited I was for this week. Let's hope that translates into wins for us! As we enter the fourth month of the NFL season injuries are rampant throughout the league. Along with injuries Covid-19 testing and tracing has affected this week more than any to this point this season. This is the first week where I'm coming hard at some touchdown scorers that are priced below +200. This is a gamble but that's what it's all about. I don't have a banker but I have some anytime touchdown picks that the numbers really support here in Week 14.
The weather will not be much of a factor across the country which is something that we need to take into consideration. For December this is extremely fortunate and we don't need to rule out any game for these situations.
Even better than my picks is the OddscheckerUS website compares odds from every sportsbook for every NFL game. This includes odds for anytime touchdown scorers and we find where you can get the best price for your bet.
The good news is I've narrowed down the best anytime touchdown picks. With Week 14 of the NFL here I'm looking for a strong week of anytime touchdown picks and trying to continue to build our profit this season. Let's stay hot and keep things rolling! Best of luck if you tail!
Week 14 Top Anytime TD Bets
Mike Williams (+165)
The Chargers situation this week has been a bit hairy since Keenan Allen tested positive for Covid-19. Mike Williams was then deemed a close contact but we recently received news he has passed all tests and Williams will be active. Allen will miss the matchup with the Giants but this sets up Mike Williams to be quite active. In Mike Williams' four career games without Allen, he posted 7/76/2, 5/109/2, 4/40, and 6/108/1, to go with a 25 percent target share. These odds are quite generous given the fact that my Giants are tied for the fourth-most scores to opposing wide receivers.
Travis Kelce (+100)
Kelce should absolutely get back on track in a major way against a defense that he’s absolutely owned over the years. He’s posted 7-83-2, 11-102-1, and 3-78-0 receiving lines in his last three matchups against the Raiders defense. The Raiders have allowed the third most scores, yards, and the fourth most receptions to tight ends this season. The Raiders allow a touchdown on a league-high 39 percent of red-zone passes and I fully expect Kelce to be on the receiving end of one this Sunday.
Byron Pringle (+450)
The Chiefs are projected to score the most points of any team in Week 14. In Week 13 Pringle played 70 percent of the Chiefs' snaps, good for his largest share of the season. He scored back in Week 10 against the Raiders. I think it's widely known the Chiefs have faced two-high safeties a league-high 58 percent of the time this season, which has been the way opposing defenses are trying to eliminate their explosive plays. However, when they played the Raiders in Week 10, Vegas used two-high 28 percent of the time the least the Chiefs have seen this season. Patrick Mahomes passed for a season-high 406 yards and five touchdown passes. Vegas ranks first in Cover-3 (46.2%) and last in two-high safety looks (24.8%) so there's a good chance we can see the top lifted off the defense more than once on Sunday. Tyreek Hill should eat but if he shares the wealth it might be with Pringle who has been on the field the most of any other Kansas City wide receiver over the last month.
Tre'Quan Smith (+265)
While I think the Saints run all over this Jets team on Sunday I think Smith is about to become a very busy man for Taysom Hill. Even with Deonte Harris regularly making big plays, Smith has led the Saints in snaps, routes, targets, receptions, and red-zone targets since Week 10. Now, Harris is suspended, and they face the Jets. If there's a pass catcher I prefer for the Saints to score it's Smith. The Jets allow a touchdown on a league-high 31.3 percent of opposing drives. The only issue we might encounter is if Taysom Hill is limited to throw after acquiring a pinky injury. I still like Smith a lot this Sunday.
Taysom Hill (+195)
Just in case the Saints take the advice from my friend Matt O'Leary to take a page out of the Patriots playbook by only passing the ball three times against the Jets I think it's responsible for us to be on Taysom to rush for one score this Sunday. We all know the Jets have allowed the most rushing touchdowns to running backs and that's essentially how we should treat Hill right now. In his five career starts he's posted these rushing numbers: 10 carries-49 rush yards-2 TD, 10-44-2, 14-83-0, 5-33-0, 11-101-0. Even with Kamara back in the lineup, I think Hill has an excellent opportunity to capitalize with Mark Ingram sidelined here in Week 14 as long as Kamara doesn't go score five times on his own!
CeeDee Lamb (+155)
Lamb played a season-high snaps out of the slot last week. With Gallup and Amari Cooper at 100 percent, we can expect more of the same. Washington has allowed 74.3 percent of yards gained against them to come via the pass, which is the third-highest total in the league. They have also allowed touchdowns on a league-high 6 percent of passing attempts against them. Washington has allowed the fifth-most yards to slot receivers and only the Titans and Dolphins have allowed more 15-plus yard completions out of the slot so far in 2021 than Washington. Lamb should feast this Sunday!
Austin Hooper (+325)
Baltimore has been consistently generous to opposing tight ends in 2021. Hooper has been targeted on 26.2 percent of his routes when the Browns have played at home this year compared to 17 percent on the road. David Njoku and Harrison Bryant are both out this Sunday which will force even more targets towards Hooper! The Ravens are tied with the fourth-most scores and yards allowed to tight ends. Let's hope this one is a shootout like it was in Cleveland last season between these two teams. For our next pick, we're staying with the Browns!
Donavan Peoples-Jones (+300)
This is quite a gamble we're taking entrusting Baker Mayfield to throw multiple touchdowns but I'm confident at least one of these will hit for us on Sunday. Even worse Baker has only thrown one touchdown to his wide receivers in the four games since cutting Odell Beckham. Baltimore has allowed the second-most yards per play and a league-high 76.4 percent of yards have come through the air. The Ravens have been gouged over the last month allowing the most production to wide receivers on the outside. They just lost star corner Marlon Humphrey on the season to add to their injury woes in the secondary in 2021. Only the Jets are allowing explosive pass plays at a higher rate of dropbacks than the Ravens.
Cole Beasley (+333)
This game has the highest total of all of Week 14 currently. It also projects to have the second-fastest pace meaning more plays. Tampa plays zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL at 75 percent. Beasley is the Bills' go-to target against zone defenses with a whopping 25 percent of targets against zone coverage which is the most for the Bills. In what should be an extremely entertaining game and one the Bills are desperate to win I love them to put up points with the Cole-Train contributing to the scoreboard.
DK Metcalf (+130)
Last week, Russell Wilson finally showed we can trust him again. After completing just 55 percent of his passes in his first three games back from injury, he hit on 81 percent against the 49ers. Wilson is at his best when he is chucking deep to both Metcalf and Lockett, well the Texans defense provides that perfect recipe. These are the stats on the Texans defense facing targets thrown at least 20 yards downfield: Pass yards per attempt: 17.7 (No. 31), Explosive pass play rate: 50% (No. 31), QB rating: 98.3 (No. 23), Contested target rate: 14.7% (No. 32). Houston has one cornerback graded within PFF’s top-80 players at the position. Insert "HOUSTON, WE HAVE A PROBLEM" gif!
Tyler Lockett (+140)
Rinse and repeat what I said above! Since Wilson returned to action, Lockett has garnered six end zone targets in those four games. At least one of these guys will score this week and my money is literally on both as this is a SMASH spot for the Seattle passing game.
Week 14 Anytime Touchdown Picks
- Mike Williams (+165)
- Travis Kelce (+100)
- Byron Pringle (+450)
- Tre'Quan Smith (+265)
- Taysom Hill (+195)
- CeeDee Lamb (+155)
- Austin Hooper (+325)
- Donavan Peoples-Jones (+300)
- Cole Beasley (+333)
- DK Metcalf (+130)
- Tyler Lockett (+140)
Tom Viera is an experienced betting and fantasy sports writer. Tom brings a vast knowledge of all things NFL, NBA, MLB and soccer to the OddsChecker stable of handicappers.