Week 14 NFL Player Prop Picks: Two Best Bets of the Week

John Hyslop shares his two best bets in terms of player props for Week 14 of the NFL season.
John Hyslop |
Sat, December 11, 2:17 PM EST | 4 min read
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Week 14 NFL Player Prop Picks: Two Best Bets of the Week

People, we're on a heater and when you're on a heater, you don't stop betting. That's just how heaters work. I'm not in a position to change the rules on heaters so this is how we'll roll. Lucky for us, Sunday features a slate full of games which are full of player props. They'll make your head spin there are so many. Luckily for you, I put my gloves on and handled each prop with the care it deserves. I found one for the early game and one for the late game. Each has been through a rigorous set of mental simulations and both held up to the test. Sunday has the potential to be the greatest day of all time.

Click Here for Week 14 NFL Odds

Alvin Kamara Over 106.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)

Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.

DraftKings is the spot for this one. They've got 106.5 which is good enough for me. FanDuel has 109.5 and I think that hits but why mess around? Just go low. It should be noted that both Barstool and BetMGM are also hanging 106.5 for -115 so they are also options.

I don't think there's any chance the Jets hold Kamara to under 150 rushing plus receiving yards Sunday. For starters, the Jets have given up the second-most receiving yards to opposing running backs in the NFL this season. On top of that, only three teams have given up more rushing yards to running backs.

If you're worried about Kamara not being 100% after an injury, you can but I'm not. Why would they bring him back now if he's not fully healthy? That would be the dumbest possible thing they could do. I'm not buying it.

On top of all that, both Mark Ingram and Ty Montgomery are on the Covid list and will likely not be active. I think the plan will be to run with Taysom Hill and Kamara and then throw to Kamara when they want to throw. How hard is that? He should have this in the first half.

Zack Moss under 20.5 rushing yards (-120)

Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.

DraftKings and BetMGM are the only two books I've seen post this guy so hats off to them. Very cool. Barstool and FanDuel neglected him and for good reason. It's hard to make a number on a guy who may not even play.

Here's the thing, the Bills may not even dress this guy. The only reason we're getting a number on him this week is because Buffalo actually let him play last week against the New England Patriots. You may remember the weather was crazy and it made sense to dress him since running the ball was going to be a big deal.

That's not the case this week. First, the Buccaneers are a top-10 run defense in terms of yards per attempt. Running the ball isn't the best way to operate and the Bills know it. No team in the NFL has given up fewer rushing yards this season than Tampa.

Part of the reason for the low rushing yards total is the fact that Tampa's offense is so good. If they jump out to a lead then Moss is game scripted out. With Matt Breida in the mix, Moss is the odd man out anyway. The hope here is that he dresses but only plays in the low 20% of snaps. If that happens, this guy won't see 21 rushing yards.

John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
January 202234230175.80%

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