Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Prediction: Win This SNF Bet in the First Half

Week 14 brings us a Sunday Night Football divisional bout between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears. How can we bet this? Lightning Locks takes a look.
Lightning Locks |
Sun, December 12, 6:05 PM EST | 4 min read
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Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Prediction: Win This SNF Bet in the First Half

The Bet: Packers first half -6.5 (-110)

"I still own you"

We all know the line. We all know what's going on tonight. You can't say you "own" someone and not back it up. So Mr. Rodgers will back it up (20 out of 23 is pretty impressive, as is 22-5 for his career).

But we feel just in case there are some shenanigans or back door nonsense, we'll get it out of the way early -- we believe the line will go up (I have a trend this year that is 100% on the Bears, so let's not sit around to find out). We are taking Green Bay -6.5 for the first half, meaning if they lead by seven, we win and we can enjoy the second half.

Click here for complete Packers vs. Bears betting odds

Green Bay is 5-0 SU and ATS at home this year and I am sure they know it. The Bears have four wins but two are against Detroit and one was barely a W on Thanksgiving, so they haven't been impressing anyone. Dalton is out again, Fields is in and we have seen him in action this year enough to know he isn't going to light up any scoreboards (16-27 for 174 in his last game and 6-43 rushing -- nothing to write home about).

We also need to remember that the "toe" has had a week off. The running backs are now fully healthy, especially Jones, who needed the week off. An interesting number is the Bears have given up 4.8 yards a carry when the team runs up the middle and Green Bay averages 4.3, which makes sense because Dillon is a load. This sort of reminds me of Thunder and Lightning (Dayne and Barber from the New York Giants).

Let's not forget that Green Bay is the second-best possession team, so when they can run and kill clock. They'll score and give the Bears fewer possessions, which plays perfectly into the first half wager because a lead early means sit on it late (hence a possible back door ).

On the other side, Fields is in after being out for three weeks, so now everyone has to adjust to a mobile quarterback versus the stiff Dalton.

Some added numbers -- Green Bay is 21-7 in their last 28 ATS versus Chicago. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven. Green Bay, at home, has won by 12, 17, 14, 10, 18 (also covered the only time they were DD favorites against Detroit). They've won every game by double digits, so why change now?

The Packers have a very easy schedule and could end the season with a record of 14-3, so we feel they are focused and want to get this one over with quickly. Let's enjoy the first half, get the win, and just enjoy a stress-free second half.

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Line Movement

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