MNF Player Prop Picks: Sony Michel Poised For Big Night
MNF Player Prop Picks: Sony Michel Poised For Big Night
Before I even write this, I'd like to give a shoutout to the books. You guys almost got me. I went to write an article about Matthew Stafford and his passing yards but the more I looked at it, the more I realized I might be wrong. I still may play Stafford's passing yards but there is a better play on the board. Hats off to the books, you guys are truly worthy adversaries. I almost missed this one completely because no one had anything posted for Sony Michel until after 1pm ET.
Sony Michel Over 68.5 rushing yards (-115)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.
This one is hanging proudly at DraftKings but I am sure the others will be along shortly. They aren't dumb, everyone wants in the Sony Michel game these days. If I had to guess, BetMGM will be next followed by FanDuel and Barstool. I'm good with 68.5 so I'm not waiting around.
The Arizona Cardinals don't have a run defense. They're middle of the pack in terms of rushing yards allowed to the running back position, but they're not as good as that number. First of all, only five teams in the NFL have seen fewer rush attempts than they have this season. Can't hang rushing yards if you don't run the ball. That's science (and math).
As we speak, Arizona gives up 4.7 yards per rush which is not good. In fact only one team is worse in the metric and that's the Pittsburgh Steelers. Just last week they gave up 90 rushing yards to David Montgomery. Even though they manhandled the Bears, game script still wasn't an issue as Montgomery covered this number easily.
We obviously want this game to stay close but it might not have to. First off, in the first meeting Darrell Henderson ran for 89 yards in a 17-point loss. This time around he's out but Sony Michel is in and he looked filthy last week. I get that it was the Jacksonville Jaguars but they've got the fifth-best run defense in terms of yards per carry in the NFL. Not too shabby.
My guess is Michel takes the lion share of carries tonight and he has success moving the ball. At this number, he doesn't need to be Barry Sanders out there. Just get to 70 yards and call it a night. The Rams' offensive line is 4th in the NFL in adjusted line yards so it shouldn't be hard to just run behind those guys. This one is easy.
John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.
| Record Date | Wins | Losses | Push | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2022 | 34 | 23 | 0 | 175.80% |