Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Player Prop Prediction: Free James Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans best player prop bet for this Sunday's AFC South matchup. NFL handicapper Josh Gayle breaks down the game and how he's betting it.
Josh Gayle |
Fri, December 17, 2:58 PM EST | 4 min read
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Player Prop Prediction: Free James Robinson

This game should be an absolute snooze fest. The only interesting narrative heading into this one will be how Jacksonville performs in their first game without Urban Meyer. I decided to cook up a bet for this one, so it isn't an automatic bathroom break when it pans over to this game on Redzone.

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James Robinson anytime TD (+105)

Line Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing

I have never been more confident that this is the week James Robinson is unleashed. We have seen Robinson have moments of greatness this season but have yet to see him completely let go to be a consistent workhorse back we once knew him as. Now that Urban Meyer is back at the bars instead of the sideline, we have good reason to believe we finally see a high dosage of Robinson. Interim coach Darrell Bevell stated, "James Robinson is our starting running back, and he will be played as such." That statement alone gives me way more confidence that Robinson will finally be utilized often. Not to mention, Carlos Hyde is looking to be out as he remains in concussion protocol.

The matchup is a great one. In nine of their last ten games, Houston has allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back. With Robinson having no competition for snaps, that's a stat I love to hear. Jacksonville is a hard team to trust, but on the other hand, so is Houston. Jacksonville's offense won't be striking fear into anyone anytime soon, but in this matchup against Houston, I see them driving down the field on a somewhat often occasion. Vegas currently has the Jags points total at 22.5. Whether that ends being three touchdowns or two touchdowns and three field goals, I feel like either way, Robinson should be good to find paydirt once.

The spread on this game might be the ultimate good sign. Houston will be without Tyrod Taylor, and although Davis Mills isn't a complete scrub, he's certainly a downgrade. Jacksonville head into this as 3.5 point favorites. How often do we get to see Jacksonville head into a Sunday as a favorite? Running should be viable throughout this game, so the possibility of cashing will remain intact all game. The cool thing about touchdown bets is that they could also cash in the first quarter, and you can count your money come halftime.

Another factor I love is the weather. This game is projected to be played in a rainy environment. This actually bodes much better for Jacksonville because they have the more talented running back. Houston might struggle to move the chains with that abysmal running back room and backup quarterback. If Jacksonville finds themselves in the red zone, I would guess they're more likely to hand off the wet ball to their lead back than pass it and risk turnover due to the ball slipping out of Lawrence's hand. We all know how much Trevor loves his interceptions, though.

Houston's defense is a circus act, and James Robinson finally is freed of the coach who seems to have a personal vendetta against him. The stars are aligning for Robinson to have a big game. Let's hope his high rush total will include a touchdown next to it. The fact that we get this at plus money is an early Christmas gift, and DraftKings are doing their best to spread the holiday cheer.

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Josh Gayle
@ThatGuyBets

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
NFL 2021-222012016.42%

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