Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans Player Prop Prediction: Fade the Steelers Rushing Attack

The Pittsburgh Steelers are hosting the Tennessee Titans in Week 15. Here's an under on a player prop that you don't want to miss out on.
Josh Gayle |
Fri, December 17, 8:56 AM EST | 4 min read
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans Player Prop Prediction: Fade the Steelers Rushing Attack

We have a fun one here. Two competitive teams are facing off in a pick' em game. This game is truly a 50/50 in terms of how Vegas looks at it. I think I found something really sneaky, but it will require some sweating.

Click Here For Steelers vs Titans Odds

Najee Harris UNDER 70.5 rushing yards (-115)

Line Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing

Najee Harris has most definitely improved as the season has progressed. Fading him during his come-up might be frowned upon by some, but I think it's within good reason to do so. Najee has failed to reach 71+ rush yards in 7/13 games this year. One game, he had exactly 71, so he lucked out there. This pick is much more about my belief in the Titans rush defense than my disbelief in Najee. The Titans have an abysmal pass defense, but their run defense has quietly shut down some big names.

This season, Tennessee has had its fair share of tough matchups but has done an incredible job containing lead backs. The Titans have only allowed one running back to clear this number in 13 games. In other terms, Tennessee has held lead backs under this total 92.3% of the time this season. If I were to ask you who the top running back this season has been, you would likely answer with Jonathan Taylor. Did you know that Taylor was held under this number not only once but twice this season against Tennessee? I think Najee has an incredible future in this league, but he's far from efficient, and this defense limits big plays from a rushing perspective.

Tennessee very quietly ranks 4th in the fewest rushing yards allowed to the running back position. Najee has run for 71+ yards in 6/13 games, but none of those were against teams ranked higher than Tennessee. The spread for this game is completely dead even. Rushing will likely be a viable option in all four quarters, but the same could be said about passing. If you try to put yourself in the Steeler's shoes, wouldn't you want to pass the ball against a defense allowing the most receptions to wide receivers? This feels like a Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool game. If Najee is featured heavily, it should be as a pass-catcher.

The last point worth noting should be the weather. This game will be played in Pittsburgh in mid-30 temperatures. Although that's a valid reason to run the ball, this game doesn't project heavy wind, and we have seen Big Ben play in these types of games his whole career and still find success moving the ball through the air. Of every Quarterback in the NFL, we have seen Big Ben play in the most cold-weather games, and he won't be out of his comfort zone in the slightest. I know this line won't be popular, but I believe that's more of a testament of the public liking overs more than unders. I prefer betting overs, but I take value where I see it, and I think this is 10 yards too high.

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Josh Gayle
@ThatGuyBets

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
NFL 2021-222012016.42%

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