Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Player Prop Picks: Trust the Dolphins to Dominate

NFL handicapper Gray Gutfreund is here breaking down his top player prop bets for the Week 15 AFC East matchup between the Dolphins vs. Jets.
Gray Gutfreund |
Sat, December 18, 9:55 AM EST | 4 min read
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Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Player Prop Picks: Trust the Dolphins to Dominate

The Miami Dolphins had a rocky start to the 2021 season, going just 1-7 in their first eight games. But, the Dolphins have turned it around and have won five consecutive games, good for the NFL’s third-longest active winning streak. On the flip side, the Jets have been ice cold. New York has lost five in their last six games and allowed at least 30 points in four. So, after the season seemed like it could be lost for Miami, they’re miraculously in the midst of a playoff push.

For an AFC East contest that projects as a potential blowout in Miami’s favor, I’ll be giving out my two favorite player props from Sunday’s game in Miami. Let’s roll!

Click Here for Dolphins vs Jets Odds

DeVante Parker Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Line Available at Caesars at Time of Publishing

When healthy, DeVante Parker is a target monster. He has at least seven targets in five of six games this season, averaging 8.0 looks per game. He has a 67% hit rate on this over, posting 60+ receiving yards in four of six games and averaging 64.8 yards per game.

Parker should be Tua Tagovailoa’s top target this Sunday. He’s developed a strong rapport with the young lefty quarterback, posting 81, 85, and 62 yards in three full games with Tua. And rookie wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is very likely to miss this contest. Waddle is seeing 8.8 targets per game and ranks 6th among all players in receptions this season. This considerable amount of usage will be vacated entirely from Miami’s lineup, and Parker figures to be one of the greatest beneficiaries.

Parker is in a blow-up spot against a horrid Jets secondary with very little competition for targets. Here’s where New York’s pass defense ranks in some key statistics:

  • Last in Passer Rating allowed
  • Last in Expected Points contributed
  • Last in Yards Per Attempt allowed
  • Last in Completion Percentage

Out of 32 NFL teams, the Jets rank 32nd in nearly everything when defending opposing passing attacks. Waddle, Mack Hollins, and Mike Gesicki finished with at least 50 receiving yards in Miami’s win over the Jets a few weeks ago, where Tua diced up arguably the league’s worst secondary.

DeVante Parker can safely be projected to see at least 7-8 targets against an atrocious secondary with Jaylen Waddle sidelined and is in a terrific spot to hit this over in Week 15.

Jason Sanders Over 2.5 PAT’s Made (-105)

Line Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing

A kicker bet! Some say kickers aren’t exciting, and maybe they’re right. Personally, however, I think this bet is exhilarating. Don’t get me wrong; Sanders is a great kicker. He was even voted as a first-team All-Pro last season. However, this is more of a play on the success of Miami’s offense than anything else.

The Jets quite literally have the worst defense in football. They’re helpless against the pass and the run, and they’re allowing the most points per game by a healthy margin. New York allows 30.5 PPG, and DraftKings has Miami’s team total listed at 25.5, indicating a high likelihood for plenty of Dolphins scoring opportunities.

The Jets have given up the most touchdowns this season and, subsequently, the most PAT’s. Eight of the last nine kickers facing the Jets have made at least three extra points, while New York is conceding an average of 4.0 PAT’s per game during this stretch. The Jets are allowing more Red Zone trips and Red Zone touchdowns than any team in football this season, which means the Dolphins should find themselves with ample opportunity to put up some touchdowns.

In this one, Miami’s offense should take care of business at home, and we’re essentially banking on three total Dolphins touchdowns in 60 minutes of action. Sanders knocked home 3 PAT’s when Miami scored 24 points in a road win over the Jets a few weeks back. Now, the Dolphins are at home coming out of the bye week, and we’re betting against the worst defense in football, so I like our chances.

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Gray Gutfreund
@PropBetGuru

Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
December 2021330-3.82%

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