Week 15 NFL Player Prop Picks: Two Best Bets of the Week

Week 15 NFL player prop picks and best bets from handicapper John Hyslop. Don't miss John's best player prop picks for this weekend.
John Hyslop |
Sat, December 18, 12:30 PM EST | 4 min read
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Week 15 NFL Player Prop Picks: Two Best Bets of the Week

I can't even remember the last time I lost a bet in this article. I'm sure it's happened, but it's just been a while (I think). The thing is, I'm taking the whole slate and breaking it up into two bets. One for the early games and one for the late games. It's perfect because we have action all day. I know COVID has hit this week's slate pretty hard, but that doesn't mean we don't bet. In my opinion, it's actually better for us. The books have no idea how to price any of these people. Here are two that I found that have no chance of losing at the time of publishing.

Davis Mills Over 219.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing.

I'm at FanDuel for this one since they came with the best price. DraftKings came in at 222.5, so it's not like they're very far off the mark here. It's definitely playable there, but I want the best price. We'll have to play wait and see at BetMGM and Barstool, but they should enter this market soon.

It's probably pretty crazy to take a Davis Mills, but we aren't scared. For starters, I bet the Texans give up a few points. They've given up 30-burgers in consecutive weeks, so it's not like they're the '85 Bears here. Once they give up points, they'll go into throw mode. It happens all the time.

Once they're throwing the ball all over the field, Mills should be fine. The kid has thrown for 300+ yards in his last two full games, and Jacksonville has allowed 3325 passing yards by quarterbacks this season. The most any team has allowed is 3770 (Seattle) to put that into perspective.

The only issue I see is the rain, but this is Florida we are talking about here. There is only a 38% chance as of right now, so it may not even rain at all. Even if it does, it won't rain the whole time. So this is some pretty low-hanging fruit, and I'm taking it.

Kyle Pitts Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.

On this one, it makes the most sense to go to DraftKings since they are hanging 44.5 for -115. You could go to Barstool as well because they have 44.5 for -117. FanDuel isn't far behind either one of those books with 46.5, and BetMGM still has nothing for Pitts.

This is probably the greatest play of all time. As you know, I'm not one for hyperbole, but it's tough for me not to be 100% honest with you guys. You're pretty much family to me. I don't think this play has a chance of losing. I can feel it in my bones.

I haven't had a chance to bet this kid yet because I was just waiting for my set to roll in. Well, it's in. First off, the game script should come into play here with a sprinkle of narrative. We all know Kyle Shanahan used to be with the Falcons. You know he will want to kill them, so we can expect Atlanta to play from behind. That's key.

Only one team in the entire NFL has given up fewer yards to opposing tight ends this season than the 49ers, which seems bad. The thing is, they're playing teams that don't even use the tight end position. Just last week, they gave up 56 yards to CJ Uzomah. Enough said.

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John Hyslop
@sloprules

John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
December 20212415025.23%

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