Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Football Team Prediction: Backing Jalen Hurts on the Ground

Josh Gayle makes his pick for Philadelphia vs Washington, and for tonight's game, he's looking at a player prop.
Josh Gayle |
Tue, December 21, 1:00 PM EST | 5 min read
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Jalen Hurts Eagles Scramble

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Football Team Prediction: Backing Jalen Hurts on the Ground

We have here a divisional matchup between two 6-7 teams on Tuesday Night Football. Although neither team will be catching up with Dallas in the division, hopes are still high to make a run at the wildcard games. We’re playing something that should be popular tonight, but for good reason.

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Jalen Hurts OVER 44.5 rushing yards (-115)

Jalen Hurts is back this week after missing last week due to an ankle injury. The game being postponed allowed him to heal a few extra days and made him closer to the 100% status we would like to see him at. He was a full participant in practice on Friday and has had 3 days since then to keep the ankle in good condition. I think we will see Hurts in his normal role as a dual-threat Quarterback and this is as good of a matchup as any.

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Washington has a great run defense in terms of limiting running backs, they allow the 3rd fewest rushing yards a game to the running back position. Teams have noticed that and have realized in order to attack their flaws you need to throw the ball. The more Jalen Hurts drops back in the pocket as a passer, the more likely he is to run the ball himself. For whatever reason, Philly doesn’t love designing runs for Hurts on the regular. Most of his production comes from making something out of nothing on busted plays. Washington Football Team allows the 2nd most rushing yards to QB’s. I won’t go over hit rate because you don’t match up against mobile quarterbacks on a weekly basis but the closest comparison I could give is Daniel Jones who ran for 95 yards on 9 carries in week 2.

Jalen Hurts has hit 45+ rushing yards in six straight and the game before that ended funnily enough with 1 yard shy at 44. On the season he is 9/12 on hitting this number and has never had less than 30 yards rushing. I think the Eagles will try to get Miles Sanders going but he should be running into a brick wall. Hurts usually heats up running the ball in the second half so I don't want us to stress if he’s having a slow first half with his legs. 

The Eagles are favored in this game by 8.5 points which I don’t mind. If the Eagles can go up a touchdown or two by the fourth quarter I think we could see 4-5 rushing attempts by Hurts in the 4th quarter if Sanders is really being limited and Philly wants to run the clock. This just feels like a small number for him that he’s been hitting routinely, the fact that it's against the team that allows the second-most rushing yards to quarterbacks was the cherry on top. 

In every article, I write I try to list positives and negatives to give you all the full spectrum to each bet. If there is one concern I could have it would be Washington's ability to drain clock and limit possessions for Philly. The Eagles have a below-average run defense and if Antonio Gibson gets hot that clock could be ticking through the game limiting the number of drives for Jalen to get the job done for us. I still find the number to be too low and I figure we’ll be alright, but I don’t want to act like none of these bets come with any potential risk.

The weather for this one should be clear but there is a 15% chance of rain in this one. If it rains, that could actually force the Eagles hand to design some runs for Hurts but I’m not banking on it. 45 rushing yards for this guy is nothing. He has never run the ball less than seven times in a game so the volume will be there, we’re just betting on his efficiency. Washington also allows the 2nd most yards per carry to QB’s so that shouldn’t be an issue. I expect this line to move into the high 40’s before kickoff, lets sweep the article plays and make it a 5-0 week!

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Football Team Pick

  • Jalen Hurts OVER 44.5 rushing yards (-115 @ DK)

Josh Gayle
@ThatGuyBets

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
NFL 2021-222012016.42%

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