Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Prediction: Trust Josh Jacobs' Volume

The Las Vegas Raiders are hosting the Denver Broncos in Week 16. Here's an over on a player prop that you don't want to miss out on.
Josh Gayle |
Thu, December 23, 4:09 PM EST | 3 min read
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JOSH JACOBS RUN RAIDERS

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Prediction: Trust Josh Jacobs' Volume

When you look up "mediocre football" in the dictionary, it shows this game. We have two 7-7 divisional rivals battling here to find out who is less average. All jokes aside, this game has great value, and I think we found a great spot to target.

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Josh Jacobs Over 23.5 receiving yards (-115)

Line Available at Caesars at Time of Publishing

I didn't think I would be targeting the Denver defense with my first look. However, I noticed that Denver had shown a weakness lately against running backs catching out of the backfield upon further evaluation. They have allowed nine running backs to achieve 24+ receiving yards in their last nine games. Jacobs was one of those nine backs, and that number was hit with Kenyan Drake active. We should see Jacobs have an even more featured role against this Vegas team now that Drake is out.

Considering that, it's also really nice to see that Jacobs has games of 42 and 46 receiving yards since Drake's absence. Not to mention Jacobs has hit this line in five straight games. This line should move considering the hit rate and that he has already hit against this opponent, and also injuries at the same position have him eliminating competition. Jacobs implied receptions are set between 3 and 4, and if he can achieve either of those, I think we're in the green. DEN allows the second-most yards per reception to running backs with 9.75. If Jacobs catches three balls, I would like to think he should be north of 24.

This game is essentially a toss-up. The books have this game as even as possible which makes sense considering they're two 7-7 teams. Drew Lock will be manning the quarterback position for Denver, but he isn't much of a dropoff from Bridgewater, in my opinion. I only bring up the game spread to reiterate how I believe passing should be a viable option in all four quarters. I think this one has the upside to cash quickly, but if the game is close and we're entering the fourth, know that not all hope is lost.

This game projects to have 10+ MPH winds. Although that's nothing too crazy, it could play a minor factor in a few shorter throws that we're accustomed to seeing. Regardless of weather conditions, we've witnessed Jacobs hit this regularly, which appears to be a plus matchup for him. I feel confident heading into Sunday with this one, and I think we're getting a steal with -115 here.

Lastly, it's worth noting that we haven't seen Darren Waller log a single practice at the time of writing. I think this bet should cash regardless, but if Waller misses yet another week, it is a good sign that Jacobs may be even more heavily relied on in the passing game. Additionally, losing a consensus Top-3 tight end to injury will open up targets to other playmakers in the offense. I would guess this line moves at least a yard or two, so try to get it in as fast as possible.

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Josh Gayle
@ThatGuyBets

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
NFL 2021-222012016.42%

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