NFL Christmas Player Props: Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets

NFL analyst Tom Viera is here with the best anytime touchdown scorers to bet across the two Christmas day games.
Tom Viera |
Fri, December 24, 10:15 AM EST | 6 min read
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Packers Davante Adams

NFL Christmas Player Props: Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets

With the current schedule changes the NFL input last week we have now seen NFL action in six out of the last eight days and by Monday night it will have been in nine of the last twelve days! Now if that doesn't get you in the Christmas spirit I don't know what will.

We got things back on track Thursday night, kicking off Week 16 with a bang. We delivered a couple of early Christmas presents with AJ Brown scoring at +165 and then Brandon Aiyuk at +320! With just three weeks left of the NFL season, I'm looking to finish strong and go into the playoffs with a ton of momentum.

We have a quick turnaround again and we're back at it on Saturday night with our anytime touchdown picks! I've narrowed down the best options for anytime touchdown scorers for you here on Christmas day between the Packers and Browns and the Cardinals and Colts.

The Green Bay Packers take on the Cleveland Browns at 4:30 p.m. ET and on Christmas night we have the Arizona Cardinals hosting the Indianapolis Colts in the desert. A few weeks back I mentioned how the analysis I've done will always support our picks. We're not just throwing noodles at the wall and seeing if they stick! Let's get to the best anytime touchdown picks for Christmas day. Best of luck if you tail!

Even better than my picks is the OddscheckerUS website compares odds from every sportsbook for every NFL game. This includes odds for anytime touchdown scorers and we find where you can get the best price for your bet.

You can find TD scorer odds and all of the latest NFL odds by clicking here.

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Christmas Top Anytime TD Bets

Allen Lazard (+300)

I expect Aaron Rodgers to put on a show on Christmas day for all to see. Aaron Rodgers is averaging over 325 passing yards and three touchdowns per game in his past four, and now he gets a home game against a Browns secondary that allows touchdown passes at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Last week, Lazard saw multiple end zone targets but Rodgers uncharacteristically missed him on a couple of throws. The Browns have fared well defending wide receivers of late but in case Adams only scores once again, with MVS out Lazard is likely to see a massive uptick in targets. Lazard has scored in four of the last seven Packers games. Getting this price on Aaron Rodgers likely number-two target is a gift in itself!

Josiah Deguara (+500)

Rinse and repeat above. Aaron Rodgers has been on fire as he continues his quest to repeat as MVP again in 2021. Deguara did play more than 50 percent of the snaps for the second week in a row, and he will have the matchup in his favor in Week 16 against the Browns. He ran 21 routes which were more than teammate Marcedes Lewis ran in Week 15 with just ten routes. With MVS currently slated to miss this game, Deguara will likely see even more looks. The Browns are tied for the fourth-most scores allowed to opposing tight ends. I truly believe one of the Packers tight ends finds the end zone. I don't hate the strategy of splitting this wager on both Deguara and Lewis (+625) odds to score.

Donovan Peoples-Jones (+375)

Not everything is perfect up in Green Bay though. Pretty close to it but they have a few minor flaws. One of them is Darnell Savage. We saw Mark Andrews destroy him in Week 15 and now DPJ gets this matchup. The last four weeks, the Packers have given up at least 28 points. Mostly allowing wide receivers to do the damage. Since Odell Beckham left Cleveland, DPJ has been a direct beneficary of more usage. He's played a near equal number of snpas to Jarvis Landry and he has solidified his role on the outside. Taking away last weeks COVID game for the Browns, Peoples-Jones has now managed at least 70 yards in four of his last six appearances, giving him decent momentum. The Browns are a run first team but we expect them to be playing from behind and that means more looks for DPJ. Getting this price is a steal!

Davante Adams to Score 2 (+425)

If you haven't picked up on the trend here it's that Rodgers will indeed put on a show. It's no secret that Aaron Rodgers is one touchdown pass away from passing Brett Favre on the all-time list. I truly believe he accomplishes this early in the game and on a patented touchdown throw to his good friend Davante. All we'll need is another score from Adams later in the game to cash this. With Valdes-Scantling on the COVID-list, Adams very well could receive even more looks. The only thing slowing down Adams this season is defensive coordinators are designing double or help coverage the most often against him and also true bracket coverage at the highest rates of any player in the NFL. If there's any duo I trust to find a way around this, it's Rodgers and Adams. We went to this pick a week ago and Adams only connected for one. I think Davante and Aaron deliver us a huge present in Week 16 though. I'll even be sprinkling on Adams to score the first touchdown (+500) on Christmas day!

Zach Ertz (+255)

Last week in the Cardinals loss to the Lions, Ertz ran the second-most routes for Arizona behind on Christian Kirk. In the Cardinals first game without DeAndre Hopkins on 55 total dropbacks, Kirk ran 53 routes, Zach Ertz 50, Antoine Wesley 46, and A.J. Green 38. This season with Hopkins available, Zach Ertz has run routes on 70.6% of dropbacks for a 14.2% target share. Ertz without Hopkins has run routes on 84.4% of dropbacks and accounted for a 20.5% target share. As a result of Hopkins' injury, Ertz has emerged as a key component of the Cardinals passing game. He played on 89% of Arizona's snaps and had the second-most targets (12). On Christmas night he takes on the Colts defense, which allows the most yards, the second-most catches, and is tied for the fourth-most scores to tight ends. Ertz has at least six targets in four of his past five games, including a season-high 11 last week. The Colts allow the second-highest completion rate in the red zone. Considering Ertz has seven red-zone targets over his past three games, I LOVE this spot for him!

AJ Green (+240)

The best path to success against this Colts defense seems to be the deep ball. The Colts rank in the bottom 10 in every category on targets thrown at least 20 yards downfield. Yards per attempt (No. 26), Explosive pass play rate (No. 32), QB rating (No. 22), Contested catch rate (No. 21). Only Matt Ryan has a higher adjusted completion rate than Kyler Murray when targeting receivers at least 20 yards downfield. Both Christian Kirk (17 deep ball targets) and A.J. Green (15) have been used almost equally downfield. The Colts corners have been bludgeoned by wide receivers, Cooper Kupp (9-163-2), A.J. Brown (10-155-1), Marquise Brown (9-125-2), Tyler Lockett (4-100-2), Deebo Samuel (7-100-1), and Elijah Moore (7-84-2) among others this season. The Colts have allowed 17 touchdowns to wide receivers this season, tied for third-most in the NFL. Last week I opted for Kirk and we hit but I'm pivoting to Green against the Colts. Kirk runs the majority of his routes from the slot and the Colts have been excellent slowing down slot receivers. Green here makes for the perfect fit. He has 11 catches for 166 yards the past two weeks and received two end zone targets against the Lions last week. He's amassed 18 targets the last two weeks and I love his chances on Christmas night!

Christmas Day Anytime TD Picks

  • Allen Lazard (+300)
  • Josiah Deguara (+500)
  • Donovan Peoples-Jones (+375)
  • Davante Adams to Score 2 (+425)
  • Zach Ertz (+255)
  • AJ Green (+240)
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Tom Viera is an experienced betting and fantasy sports writer. Tom brings a vast knowledge of all things NFL, NBA, MLB and soccer to the OddsChecker stable of handicappers.

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