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Cleveland Browns vs. Green Bay Packers player prop picks and predictions for their Christmas Day matchup. Handicapper Gray Gutfreund gives us his picks, including a Same-Game Parlay, for this one.
ANALYSIS

Green Bay Packers vs. Cleveland Browns Player Prop Picks: Celebrate Christmas at Lambeau With These Picks

The Green Bay Packers are hosting the Cleveland Browns at Lambeau Field for a Christmas Day edition of some NFL football. The Packers are aiming to hold on to the NFL's best record and inch closer to the NFC's 1-seed with a win, while the Browns are hoping to stay alive. After Monday's loss to the Raiders, Cleveland would be 7-8 if they lose on Saturday, putting them on an uphill climb to participate in the postseason.

For an extraordinary Christmas matchup between the Packers and Browns, I’ll be dishing out my favorite picks from Saturday's game in Green Bay. Let’s roll!

Click here for Packers vs. Browns odds

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Green Bay Packers vs. Cleveland Browns Player Prop Picks

Aaron Rodgers Over 257.5 Passing Yards (-110 @ BetMGM)

Aaron Rodgers just celebrated his 38th birthday a few weeks ago, and he's still playing some of the best football of his career. He's seemingly on a path to win an MVP for the second season in a row, which would make it the fourth of his illustrious career. Green Bay is firing on all cylinders right now, and Rodgers is leading the charge in his 17th NFL season.

The 2011 Super Bowl MVP is outplaying every other quarterback in football right now. Rodgers has hit the over on this prop in five straight games, averaging 318.6 yards per game in the months of November and December.

Furthermore, Rodgers and the Packers are choosing to air the ball out more down the stretch. He attempted just 31.6 passes per game over his first seven contests of 2021, but that number has skyrocketed to 36.7 attempts per game since.

Aaron has thrown for at least 250 yards in 9 of his last 12 games, good for 279.5 YPG during this stretch. The Packers have scored 30+ points in four consecutive games and number 12 has thrown for over 325 yards per game in these games. It's unlikely that Cleveland's 20th-ranked pass defense (by expected points) is able to stop this terrific Packers offensive attack.

Same-Game Parlay: Packers +2.5, Packers Over 23.5 Total Points, David Njoku 5+ Receiving Yards (-110)

Leg 1: Packers +2.5

This is an alt-spread. It's very similar to the Green Bay Moneyline, but we're getting a couple of extra points, so I'm not complaining. Green Bay is 11-1 in Aaron Rodgers' last 12 games and they're a perfect 6-0 at home this season. The Packers are basically the greatest team ever when they play at Lambeau Field. They're 20-2 at home since Matt LaFleur took over as the team's Head Coach in 2019. They're also the league's best offense when playing at home, which takes me right into the next leg of the parlay.

Leg 2: Packers Over 23.5 Total Points

Green Bay is scoring 30.7 points per game at home this season after scoring 31.6 PPG on their home field in 2020. The Packers have put up 24+ points in 11 of Rodgers' last 12 games and reached this total in 16 of 18 games last season, including playoffs. With 30+ points in four straight games entering Week 16, the Browns' defense shouldn't get in the way on Saturday. The Browns have faced five offenses that are scoring 25+ PPG this season (GB is 27.4 PPG since Week 1). Four out of the five scored 33+ points against Cleveland, with the Bengals coming as the one squad that failed to perform against the Browns. Look for the Packers to stay hot offensively on Christmas.

Leg 3: David Njoku 5+ Receiving Yards

This is the easy one to bring the odds down for us. David Njoku has at least 5 yards in 12 of 13 games this season, and he averages 33.5 YPG. He's coming off of back-to-back 3 reception games and just played a season-high 100% of Cleveland's offensive snaps on Monday. He averages 3.5 targets per game but we likely need just one catch from Njoku to make our Christmas wishes come true.

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Article Author

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Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.

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