NFL Player Props Week 16: Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets
NFL Player Props Week 16: Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets
NFL football the day after Christmas. It really doesn't get any better than this. I'm looking to extend the season of giving even further here on Sunday with more anytime touchdown winners. There's plenty that lines up well and as I mentioned last week it's never been more important to stay on top of breaking news than right now.
Week 15 didn't go the way we had hoped it would. Our analysis was spot on again but there was something bigger taking place. There were only 40 touchdowns scored last Sunday! The 40 total touchdowns scored were the least in any Sunday with at least 10 games since Nov. 27, 1994! That's just not good for anytime touchdown bets. We've started Week 16 off red hot though hitting on two of three picks on Thursday night and looking for more on Christmas day!
More good news is, I've narrowed down the best options for anytime touchdown scorers for you here for Week 16. A few weeks back I mentioned how the analysis I've done will always support our picks. We're not just throwing noodles at the wall and seeing if they stick! Let's get to the best anytime touchdown picks for Sunday! Best of luck if you tail!
Even better than my picks is the OddscheckerUS website compares odds from every sportsbook for every NFL game. This includes odds for anytime touchdown scorers and we find where you can get the best price for your bet.
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Week 16 Top Anytime TD Bets
James Robinson (+100)
The combination of Urban Meyer getting fired, and Carlos Hyde out last week with a concussion led to James Robinson seeing his most carries and targets since Week 5 and Week 3 earlier this season. Even with Hyde returning I expect Robinson to retain this usage. He has a near every-down role against the Jets defense that allows the most rushing attempts per game over the last six weeks (32.7). It's no secret the Jets defense has allowed the most scores to opposing running backs. The same Jets defense that just allowed 29-year-old Duke Johnson to rush for two scores on them last week! The Jets allow the third-most running back yards before contact and a league-high 3.5 offensive touchdowns per game. Fire me up J-Rob again here in Week 16 as a BANKER.
Joshua Palmer (+240)
Surprisingly the Texans have been a top-five defense defending receivers out of the slot. I'm not necessarily downgrading Keenan Allen against the Texans but it's more of a lean towards Palmer here based on his expected usage. The Chargers should allow Herbert to deploy his absolute cannon of an arm this Sunday against the Texans even without Mike Williams and Jalen Guyton out on Sunday. The Texans boast the worse defense in contested target rate on throws downfield. Two weeks ago when Keenan Allen missed a game, Palmer was marched out as a starter and finished with 5 catches on seven targets and a touchdown against the Giants. The third round pick will have his chance to audition for the starting job this Sunday if Mike Williams leaves as a free agent! I love Palmer this Sunday.
Jared Cook (+333)
With Ekeler on the sideline this week it's time for the Chargers to finally unleash Justin Herbert and allow him to throw at least four touchdowns. The Texans boast the worse defense in contested target rate on throws downfield. Oh, now I'm just repeating myself. Herbie currently sits in the bottom seven quarterbacks in the league with passes attempts of 20 or more yards. I expect those attempts to go up this week against the Texans. With Donald Parham likely to sit after suffering a concussion in Week 15, and Mike Williams out, Cook will see an even larger uptick in usage. This price is a steal for the veteran tight end.
Dallas Goedert (+250)
Since Zach Ertz was traded, Goedert has a 23.3% target share, second-highest among tight ends in that span. Jalen Hurts kept looking for him last week and will once again on Sunday against the Giants defense who are 13th-worst against the tight end position this season. Last week the Giants defense gave up 10-88-1 to Dallas tight ends. The giants have allowed the fifth-most catches to tight ends so far and I expect the Eagles to have plenty of scoring opportunities this Sunday.
JaMarr Chase (+155)
The Ravens have allowed the second-most yards on deep passes, and in the nine games this season where Chase has seen multiple deep targets, he's gone bananas. Speaking of bananas, Chase went for 8 catches, 201 yards, and a touchdown against this Ravens secondary earlier this season. An NFL-high 75.4% of yards gained against the Ravens have come through the air, and the Ravens are top four in the NFL for most deep completions and most deep touchdown passes allowed.
Van Jefferson (+275)
The Rams and Vikings game this Sunday projects to have the highest total of Week 16. It is also projected to have the fastest pace, meaning the most plays ran. Last week in the Rams win over Seattle these were the routes run on 37 Matthew Stafford dropbacks: Van Jefferson 37 Cooper Kupp 36, Odell Beckham 30, and Ben Skowronek 15. Although Kupp scored twice, Jefferson was quite active. OBJ will line up more often with Patrick Peterson making me turn to Jefferson here in Week 16. The Vikings defense allows the fourth-most yards per completion and have allowed the most yards to wide receivers and tied with the third-most scores to the position. I entirely expect this Rams offense to smash this Sunday and we're getting nearly double the odds on Jefferson than the price on OBJ.
DK Metcalf (+175)
I know what you're thinking. I can't be serious going back to this guy. Well, I am dead serious. The Seahawks are facing a Bears team that has allowed touchdown passes at the highest rate this season and is dealing with health issues in its secondary. He hasn't topped 60 yards in six straight weeks but over the last two games, there have been multiple times where he should have been in the endzone. Tyler Lockett will return to the field this week and the Bears defense won't be able to focus all of its attention on Metcalf. The Bears have allowed the second-most scores to wide receivers so far. I'm going all-in on Metcalf as he
Cole Kmet (+550)
Kmet has averaged 31.7 routes run, eight targets, five receptions, 48.5 receiving yards over his last four games. In certain statistical categories, his per-game averages over that time frame surpass Darnell Mooney's. Justin Fields and Kmet have had a great connection but with Nick Foles getting the start this Sunday I think we can be even more confident in the Bears passing game. The Seahawks defense allowed the sixth-most receptions and is tied with the fourth-most scores to tight ends. This past Monday night, Kmet led the Bears in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He hasn't scored yet this season but there's a great chance that changes this Sunday. The Seahawks secondary has been a bottom-three pass defense the past four weeks and I expect Kmet to keep things rolling!
Eagles Defense/Special Teams (+390)
This is a direct attack on my Giants. They plan to march out Jake Fromm for his first career NFL start against this Eagles defense. Philadelphia's defensive front has the third-highest pass rush win rate and New York's offensive line ranks 25th in pass block win rate. The Giants rank 27th in total yards per game (311.4) and 30th in points per game (17.0) as well. This matchup favors the Eagles defense. Maybe I'm completely wrong and the Giants are lucky and find their quarterback of the future this Sunday but I'm baking on a mistake-filled game on the road in Philadelphia and watching the Giants solidify their draft position.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+150)
Considering the Chiefs will be without one of their top offensive weapons this Sunday, as of this writing Travis Kelce is on the COVID-19 list. The price on Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle isn't enticing enough and there's even a chance of Demarcus Robinson and Josh Gordon getting heavily involved. I'm opting for the Chiefs running game instead of a pass catcher. The Steelers have allowed multiple rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs in four of the past six games. They are also allowing an NFL-high 189 rushing yards per game in that six-game stretch. Clyde Edwards-Helaire will receive the bulk of the work as he's received 75 percent of the Chiefs goal line carries this season. Not the sexiest pick but he is a great bet to find the end zone for us!
Week 16 Anytime Touchdown Picks
- James Robinson (+100) - BANKER
- Joshua Palmer (+240)
- Jared Cook (+333)
- Dallas Goedert (+250)
- JaMarr Chase (+155)
- Van Jefferson (+275)
- DK Metcalf (+175)
- Cole Kmet (+550)
- Eagles Defense/Special Teams (+390)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+150)
Tom Viera is an experienced betting and fantasy sports writer. Tom brings a vast knowledge of all things NFL, NBA, MLB and soccer to the OddsChecker stable of handicappers.