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Trust the healthier team tonight on Monday Night Football between the New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins.
ANALYSIS

New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins MNF Best Bet: Trust the Healthy Team 

If the Saints were healthy this would be a great Monday Night Football game but COVID has ruined a few games this weekend and this game reminds us a little of the Bengals vs Ravens this weekend, and we all saw how that game went.

It would take us a paragraph or two to write about all the guys the Saints have out today for COVID or injuries because it's that long. I think it's 22 for COVID including a few on defense but the most impactful ones are of course the quarterbacks Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill.  These guys are already the backups to Jameis Winston so we are going with a fourth string rookie QB making his NFL debut in Ian Book tonight (The Saints were so desperate they signed Blake Bortles and tried to get Drew Brees or Phillip Rivers out of retirement for this game). Rumors are if he doesn't do well even though they signed Blake Bortles as a backup they are going with Alvin Kamara as a backup which means wildcat offense probably.  

New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction

The Saints only scored nine last week with a healthy QB so offense will not be easy to come by today against a usually stout Dolphins defense. This game is going to be ugly reminds us of last year when the Denver Broncos had every QB in covid protocol and they had to start a WR (Kendall Hinton) who got them 3 points (lost 31-3). Interestingly it was against this Saints team. We are pretty sure Ian Book is a little better but this isn't Brady replacing Bledsoe. 

We know Coach Payton is back so that will help since he calls the offensive plays and the Saints are still in the playoff hunt. They are playing at home but one thing we can't forget is the Saints just played probably the best game of the year, by shutting out the best offense in the NFL and the goat in a game we won't forget for a while.  That game was everything and they gave everything in the best defensive performance of the year. It's going to be very hard with all the missing guys on defense Alexander, Elliss, Jenkins, Holmes, Ringo, Granderson, Gray, Davis, etc. for them to duplicate what they did last week and we have a little evidence of this. 

In Week 1 they beat the Packers in a shocker that no one saw coming and followed it up with a 26-7 loss to Carolina. Then they beat the Patriots 28-13 in New England and went on to lose 27-21 to the lowly New York Giants at home.  Now we have the ultimate win and they are back home to play a team who if they win is in the playoffs.

CLICK HERE FOR SAINTS VS DOLPHINS ODDS

Why the Dolphins? We expect Miami to give it all tonight because this is their only real Primetime game all year (they had Thursday night but MNF and SNF are the games everyone wants). Tua has been amazing since he came back leading the league in completion percentage (70% on the year). They just found a new toy in RB Duke Johnson, who had the best game of his career (22-107-2) in his first game as a Dolphin. The Dolphins were supposed to win this year based on their defense which was awful for the first half of the year (they were 1-7) but now they are the HOTTEST team in the NFL winning six in a row and their D has been awesome.  Take away the Jets game last week (was 17 offensively) and they have given up 9, 10, 17, 10, 9  during the winning streak. This defense is very good against the run (seventh) and clearly, the Saints offense will be run with Kamara and short passes to Kamara all game long. 

This team is hot, playing for the playoffs with their young quarterback is in the zone, and they have been covering every game in the winning streak except last week when they gave up a pick 6 blowing the cover last week. The Dolphins defense in the last 7 weeks is the second-best in yards allowed and might be first after tonight.  With Jaylen Waddle back on offense and Jevon Holland back on defense that's two huge contributors coming back. Add on that Duke Johnson is playing like a number one running back, with Tua being efficient and with the Saints starting their fourth-string quarterback we feel a blowout coming. 

Take the Dolphins -2.5, it's always smart to avoid the -3, and let's watch the Dolphins pull out a double-digit win in New Orleans tonight and  have one of the greatest in season turnarounds from 1-7 and dead to 8-7 and in the playoffs.

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New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins Pick

  • Dolphins -2.5 (-132)

New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins Line Movement

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