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Oklahoma vs. Oregon prediction and pick from handicapper Lightning Locks for tonight's Alamo Bowl. This one features two teams that came into the season with National Championship hopes. Who wins tonight? Find out here.
ANALYSIS

Oklahoma vs. Oregon Prediction & Pick Against The Spread: Hammer the Sooners

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oregon Ducks - Alamo Bowl

Spread: Oklahoma -4.5

Total: 59.5

Date: Wednesday, December 29, 2021

Game Time: 9:15 p.m. ET

Where To Watch: ESPN

Oklahoma vs. Oregon odds

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Oklahoma vs. Oregon Prediction

It's always amazing how these bowl matchups end up with some sort of intriguing storyline, isn't it? We had Coach Mike Leach against his old team and he got buried yesterday. Now, we have a drama-filled game where Oklahoma's former coach Lincoln Riley just flat out left his team, which is about to join the SEC. Yes, we think he is scared too. So he ran to the Pac-12 for money and a chance at winning because he knows the SEC is a lot better than the Pac-12.

Then, we have a coach leaving the weak Pac-12 and a team flush with Nike money to go coach in the weak ACC. But, mainly it seems he's leaving to go coach his former team, where he won championships as an offensive tackle and will look to repeat from the sideline (it's hard to pass up your alma mater. Maybe he can get Dwayne Johnson and the other studs to come back).  

After all that, we have even more drama because look who is coaching Oklahoma tonight - None other than Bob Stoops, 5 years after he left this same Oklahoma. You can't make this stuff up. The guy is in their Hall of Fame but here he is coaching 5 years later and that will get a team fired up and a coach fired up because there will be big money if he wins tonight.

Why will Oklahoma win? Well, Oregon's best player has opted out. DE Kayvon Thibodeaux is supposed to be the #1 pick in this year's draft with a weak QB class. They are also missing two of their better receivers in Johny Johnson III and Jaylon Redd, as well as a few more starters on offense and defense.  We can talk about all the guys out but the key is to talk about the best player on the field, and that is OU QB Caleb Williams, who can use this game to boost his Heisman Trophy status next season. He's good enought that Spencer Rattler, a Heisman favorite last year, was benched for him and is now leaving for South Carolina because he knows this guy has the job.

With 18 touchdowns and 4 interceptions and already predicted to be the first QB when he leaves for the NFL, Williams is the real thing.  We expect a lot of Wiliams to Mims as he was explosive all year, averaging over 20 yards a catch. Plus, hen you are playing against a ton of backups on defense the game could get ugly fast as we know Stoops is here to make a point and won't back down.

Oklahoma's defense has been much better than the stats show. The Big 12 is known for its offense but this defense has held 12 of their last 17 opponents to a conversion rate of  33% of third downs. They also are best at stopping the run (Giving up less than 124 yards per game - 24th).

We are taking Oklahoma tonight in the Alamo Bowl at -6.5 for a few reasons. We have Coach Stoops, we have the best player on the field in Caleb Williams, the Oregon defense is depleted and most importantly, this Oregon team appears to have given up on the season, just take a look at their last time out against Utah in a "revenge game" where they fell completely flat.

BLOW OUT with Oklahoma winning by at least 2 touchdowns tonight. Enjoy the fun game and you can turn it off when Oregon quits or Oklahoma gets up double digits. There will be no comeback tonight. Take the HOF Coach and a future Heisman winner and you will be a winner as well. 

Oklahoma vs. Oregon Pick

  • PICK: Oklahoma -6.5 -115

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ROI 43.4%
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