Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Picks: Will Cooper Kupp Stay Hot?

NFL handicapper and props expert Gray Gutfreund is here breaking down his top player prop bets for the Week 17 matchup between the Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Rams.
Gray Gutfreund |
Fri, December 31, 2:00 PM EST | 8 min read
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Picks: Will Cooper Kupp Stay Hot?

NFL games are becoming more and more important by the week. With just two weeks left to play in the regular season, many teams are still fighting for postseason positioning. The Rams are hoping to maintain their NFC West lead over the Cardinals, while the Ravens likely need to win two straight games to reach the playoffs.

As the Rams travel to Baltimore to kick off an exciting football-filled month of January, there are a couple of spots I'm looking to target in this contest. Let's jump into the picks!

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Ravens vs. Rams Player Prop Picks

Cooper Kupp Longest Reception Over 28.5 Yards (-115)

Cooper Kupp has been nothing short of dominant this season. He's enjoying one of the greatest seasons a wide receiver has put together in league history and is on track to take home Offensive Player of the Year honors with a strong finish to the regular season.

Kupp's dominant run began when he and Rams QB Matthew Stafford started eating breakfast together before the season started. This laid the groundwork for the excellent rapport between the two (I'm only partially joking). Kupp has a 32.8% target share in the Rams' offense this season, which puts him in his own area code on the leaderboard. Packers wideout Davante Adams ranks second with a target share of just 28.7%. The Rams' fifth-year receiver sees a ridiculous 11.1 targets per game, which should set him up for plenty of opportunities to hit this prop for us.

The Eastern Washington product has recorded a reception of at least 29 yards in 12 of his 15 games this season (most in the NFL) and gets the perfect matchup to build on this impressive hit rate this week. The Baltimore Ravens have the worst secondary in football right now, evidenced by the disaster of a game they just had against Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Cincinnati completed three 50+ yard completions against Baltimore last week, which has become the new normal for the Ravens. They give up 4.53 completions of 20+ yards each game, good for most in the NFL. They've also allowed a wide receiver to get loose for a play of at least 30 yards in 9 consecutive games. Baltimore ranks last in yards per completion, yards per attempt, and passing yards allowed, while their pass defense ranks 31st for the season as a whole (by expected points). The Ravens' secondary is an opponent's dream to go up against.

Kupp and the Rams have destroyed bad secondaries all year, and this weekend shouldn't be any different. Here is Kupp's longest reception in matchups against bottom-12 pass defenses this season:

Seattle - 33

Seattle - 42

Detroit - 59

Chicago - 56

Houston - 52

Jacksonville - 43

NY Giants - 30

This over is 7 for 7 against bottom-12 secondaries and the Ravens are the weakest of the bunch. Matthew Stafford leads all quarterbacks in 25+ yard completions this season, and he should have no issue finding his top weapon down the field this Sunday.

Sony Michel Anytime Touchdown (-110)

Say hello to the NFL's rushing leader for the entire month of December! Sony Michel saw 23.8 touches per game over LA's last four contests, playing over 90% of the team's offensive snaps. He's become a true workhorse back in Head Coach Sean McVay's offense and should continue to dominate the workload for the Rams.

Darrell Henderson was placed on Injured Reserve and McVay said Thursday that Cam Akers is "unlikely to play" in Baltimore. That leaves Sony as the inarguable top dog in this backfield, and he should continue to see all the work he can handle this Sunday.

The Ravens have been quite tough against the run this season, but their defense has become familiar with giving up plenty of touchdowns lately. Baltimore gave up 29 points per game in December, the primary cause for their 0-4 record over the last month. They gave up a pair of running back touchdowns in each of their last two games, allowing Joe Mixon (twice), AJ Dillon, and Aaron Jones to find the end zone.

Michel has scored two touchdowns in his last four games and is a good bet to hit paydirt in a matchup where the Rams are sure to put up a ton of points.

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Gray Gutfreund
@PropBetGuru

Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
December 2021330-3.82%

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