New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Picks: Will Damien Harris Find Paydirt?
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Picks: Will Damien Harris Find Paydirt?
Two very different teams are facing off in this one, as evidenced by the massive 16 point spread. New England is looking to get a sweat-free win against a reeling Jaguars team who have yet to find any true identity. I found a prop that one book has completely mispriced.
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Damien Harris Anytime TD (-120)
Live Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing
I will keep this article relatively short in fear of these odds being changed immediately, so you have more time to place the bet. Damien Harris is coming off an impressive three-touchdown game and has 12 on the season. That alone already make these odds incredible, but the matchup is top tier as well.
Jacksonville allows the 7th most rushing touchdowns to running backs, and that's not including the week that Deebo found the endzone essentially playing the running back role. Jacksonville has been better as of late, but they've always been playing more pass-first teams. Such a team like New England should be able to go run-heavy and leave unscathed. I expect a big game from Harris yardage-wise, but I can't deny the value of this touchdown prop.
Vegas has New England's points projection at 28.5. When the Patriots score 28 or more, we have seen Harris hit this every game. I can't imagine a world where they score four touchdowns, and one of them isn't their leader in touchdowns. That's crazy talk. I know there isn't much analysis to it, but that's the beauty. It's just a player who scores a ton of touchdowns against a defense that allows a ton. These are the bets we wish we have every week.