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Tom Brady faces his longtime rival New York Jets this Sunday for the first time as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. NFL player prop expert Josh Gayle is here with the best player prop bet for this Week 17 matchup.
ANALYSIS

New York Jets vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Picks: A Player Prop Same-Game Parlay With Extreme Value

Brady versus the Jets is a tale as old as time. Since his move to Tampa, this will be his first matchup versus his old division foe since 2019. I'm not going to try to be different here, and I'm going to ride with the public here. Tampa Bay should roll in this one, and I found a nice two-legger for that type of game script.

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Tom Brady 230+ Passing Yards + Michael Carter Under 59.5 rushing (-125)

Line Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing

We'll start by talking about Mr. Tom Brady having 230+ passing yards in 12/15 games, with his few misses coming just short. At the tail end of the season, I think Tampa will be highly motivated to ensure a win here for seeding purposes. The Jets have been incredibly fortunate and have only faced off against two above-average quarterbacks all year with Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. If you look at the defensive stats against quarterbacks, it makes them look better than they are, but it's due to easier matchups.

So Brady for 230+ seems safe to me, but our Carter under is where this bet gets fun. Carter had a great week last week, but this is a brutal matchup and potential game script. Carter has only run for 60+ yards three times in twelve tries. Tampa Bay allows the fewest yards to running backs, and Tampa Bay should force Zach Wilson to throw down multiple possessions. I don't see the Jets keeping this one close, but this has a chance of hitting even if they do.

As the year progresses, the books have out sharper lines, so a way to get an edge is these two-leg SGP's that give you an edge. We have seen the Jets give up on the run game while losing in the 2nd half. Although I don't think Brady is passing in the fourth quarter, I think he should hit this mark through the first three. Michael Carter's original rushing prop is 43.5, so we're getting 16 more yards of cushion, which is enormous. Brady should hit regardless of the status of his receivers.

This game may have some rain but nothing crazy enough to deter me away from a passing over. Even if it drizzles, the forecast doesn't anticipate any wind, and Brady is used to playing in cold, tough temperature games from his days in New England. I think getting two discounts here is the way to go, and we have a winner on our hands.

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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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