NFL Week 17 Picks: 3 Best Same-Game Parlays
NFL Week 17 Picks: 3 Best Same-Game Parlays
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Football Team Two-leg parlay (+310)
Leg 1: Eagles WR DeVonta Smith, Over 69.5 Receiving Yards
There are a few different angles to this one, but let's start with the player himself.
For as good as everyone in the 2021 rookie pass-catcher class has been, there's an argument that DeVonta Smith has been the best of the bunch. While not as flashy as his peers, Smith's route-running is already top class and few players in the league see the ball into their hands as naturally as he does, let alone players his size. Smith is a menace with the ball in his hand, too, showing off all the acceleration needed to turn routine five-yard gains into first downs and more. Nobody in Washington's secondary can cover him for four quarters without a ton of help.
Leg 2: Eagles WR DeVonta Smith, Anytime TD Scorer
And that's where the second angle comes in. The last time these division rivals squared off, the Eagles gashed the Washington defense up the middle, both through the air and the ground. The Eagles ran for over 200 yards while tight end Dallas Goedert led the team with 135 receiving yards. If we are to assume division rivals adjust, Washington should be playing more heavily in the box and do more to muddy up the middle of the field this time around, which should open up easier opportunities for Smith out wide.
Lastly, it's clear quarterback Jalen Hurts likes Smith. It's no mistake that Smith is the team's leading pass option by 25 targets. Assuming the Football Team forces the Eagles to be more pass-heavy in this game, specifically away from the middle of the field, Smith should be the beneficiary of that more than anyone else on the team.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Jets Two-leg parlay (+195)
Leg 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13.5
For as odd as some of the Bucs' recent performances have been, they boat race opposing defenses more often than not. The Washington game six weeks ago was an aberration, but since then, they have scored 30-plus points in five of six games, with the Saints shutout being the lone exception. It's not like the Bucs only do this to bad defenses, either. The Bucs have faced the Bills, Colts, and Panthers over that stretch of games and cleared 30 points (with a win) against all of them. With that in mind, 30-plus points against a Jets defense ranked dead-last in DVOA should be a near-guarantee.
This bet then comes down to how well the Bucs defense can handle the Jets offense. Well, Zach Wilson is the worst quarterback in the league and will not be able to take advantage of a Bucs secondary still not completely healthy. While the Jets running blocking and rushing efficiency is probably better than most realize, it still will not be good enough to have a monster day against a fierce Bucs front-seven. If we assume the Bucs can get to 30 points, all their defense has to do is limit the Jets to under 17 points. That should be a walk in the park for them.
Leg 2: Buccaneers WR Mike Evans, Anytime TD Scorer
The Jets' top-three cornerbacks are Bryce Hall, Brandin Echols, and Michael Carter III. Hall recently tested positive for COVID19 and will miss this week's game. Being the Jets' best and biggest corner, Hall is a massive loss when facing a receiver such as Mike Evans. Furthermore, Echols is a sixth-round rookie and Carter is a fifth-round rookie who primarily plays out of the slot. It's hard to find who is supposed to be able to handle Evans in any area of the field with Hall out, and even Hall probably would not have fared very well.
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Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals Two-leg parlay (+425)
Leg 1: Kansas City Chiefs -5.5
The Bengals are a solid team. When they are on, their passing game looks as dangerous as any and their defense has been sort of chippy this year, particularly up front. That being said, the Bengals are being sort of overrated thanks to their win against Baltimore in dominant fashion. The Ravens secondary in which the Bengals hammered for over 500 yards was basically a practice squad unit made to play behind a blitz-happy front-seven, leaving them completely exposed and outmatched for most of the game. That's not going to be the case in this game.
Moreover, the Chiefs offense is getting their feet under them again. All year long, they had issues figuring out how they want to commit to the run and how to take easier gains underneath in the passing game. Those issues have started to solve themselves as of late. In particular, Patrick Mahomes has done a much better job checking the ball down and methodically working down the field, especially last week against the Steelers. Assuming the Chiefs have turned a new leaf in this regard, it's hard to imagine the Bengals can keep them down for very long in this game.
Leg 2: Kansas City Chiefs, 3+ Sacks Made
With almost the entire season in the books, the Bengals hold the third-worst adjusted sack rate on offense, per Football Outsiders. And that's with Joe Burrow having some of the best pocket presence and escapability in the NFL. To keep it short, the Bengals offensive line is a disaster from left to right. Their best player — left tackle Jonah Williams — is competent, at best, and the rest of the unit is largely made up of replacement-level players, at least as far as pass protection goes. Blend that together with the offense's high volume of five-man protections that leave them out on an island, and this is the territory they reside in.
As for the Chiefs defense, their pass-rush has gotten much better since acquiring Melvin Ingram. Though not a star, Ingram provides a bit of pressure off the edge while allowing Chris Jones to kick back inside to defensive tackle, where he may be the best pass-rusher at the position save for Aaron Donald. Defensive coordinator Steven Spagnuolo is also one of the league's most devilish pressure package designers when he wants to be. There won't be many better opportunities for him to open up his bag of tricks than against this putrid Bengals offensive line.
You've seen his breakdowns and football analysis on Twitter and elsewhere. Now, Derrik Klassen brings his unmatched knowledge of the game to OddsChecker to give us his NFL picks each and every week.