MNF Player Prop Picks: The Best Bet For Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns

Monday Night Football player prop picks. Handicapper John Hyslop shares his best bet for the Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns matchup on Monday Night Football.
John Hyslop |
Mon, January 3, 1:13 PM EST | 6 min read
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Najee Harris Running

MNF Player Prop Picks: The Best Bet For Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns

This is the last Monday Night Football Game of the season so we have to bet it. That's what being a gambler is all about. We bet on stuff. Even if the game stinks like tonight's Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers matchup. I get that it's Big Ben's last game at Heinz Field but let's be honest, that doesn't move the needle for me. Big Ben has been gone for quite some time. Still, we need to bet this game and I think I've found the perfect way to do it.

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Najee Harris Over 17.5 rushing attempts (-125) - DraftKings

You can play this at DraftKings or BetMGM but you may have to hurry because FanDuel and Barstool are already at 18.5 for +100. It's not the end of the world if you have to go 18.5, it's just that I like 17.5 better. It's a lower number.

Now, obviously Big Ben is going to make tonight all about himself. That's just how he rolls. But in a weird way, I think Najee Harris has a chance of prospering because of it. Now we're going to need some mental gymnastics to get home on this one but try to stay with me.

Only one time in the last four weeks has Harris failed to get to at least 19 carries and that was against the Tennessee Titans. They tried but the Titans just stopped them. He still ended up with 12 carries even though he only averaged 1.5 yards per carry which is kind of impressive when you think about it.

My theory is, the reason Harris didn't get more carries that day is because Roethlisberger and the offense couldn't get first downs. They only got 12 all day. I doubt that happens tonight. The last time these teams played Pittsburgh got 21 first downs. Harris carried the ball 26 times that game.

An added bonus for this play is even if the Steelers play from behind is the fact that Roethlisberger has a 6.77 ADOT this season. It's highly unlikely that we'll see a bunch of long pass plays which gives us more shots at Harris runs. (Pittsburgh actually has the fifth-fewest 20+ yard pass plays this season.) All they have to do is sustain a few drives, which I think Roethlisberger will be able to help with, and we should see Harris get at least 20 carries tonight.

John Hyslop
@sloprules

John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
December 20212415025.23%

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