Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Picks: Will Matt Stafford Continue to Struggle With Turnovers?

The San Francisco 49ers are heading to LA to take on the Rams in a Week 18 clash. Here's a player prop pick that you don't want to miss out on for it.
Josh Gayle |
Fri, January 7, 4:30 PM EST | 5 min read
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Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Picks: Will Matt Stafford Continue to Struggle With Turnovers?

Week 18 is here. It's weird to say that out loud when you're so used to the season-ending a week earlier. Who doesn't love extra football though? We've got a phenomenal game here to bet on, and I think I found something that's so obvious but could still be overlooked. So let's dive into it.

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Matthew Stafford to Throw an Interception - Yes (-110) (Risk $100 to Win $190)

Line Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing

It truly is such a simple bet, but that's the beauty of it. It can cash on the first play of the game or the last play. I'm going address the one small point of concern with you guys and then follow it up with a plethora of reasons why the good outweighs the bad here. Our negative to this bet is that San Francisco only has seven interceptions on the year, which is tied for the 3rd worst ranking in the league. Now I'll hit with a reason to be optimistic. 2 of those were against Matty Stafford himself in their earlier matchup.

It is no secret that Matthew Stafford has struggled the past few weeks after a hot start to the season. All that matters here, though, is If he throws a pick or not. Stafford has thrown an interception in 6 of his last eight games and has thrown 15 total, which is tied for 2nd worst, only trailing Trevor Lawrence. It's a battle of a defense who doesn't get many picks vs. a quarterback who throws a ton. So what's the angle?

Cooper Kupp is chasing history as the all-time leading yardage leader for the wide receiver position. He only trails Calvin Johnson by 136 yards, and Sean McVay didn't shy away from acknowledging how much that would mean to Kupp. Stafford hasn't had much to celebrate in his career, so whenever he has a chance to help a teammate break a record or get one himself, he takes it seriously. I know the Rams are in a fight for seeding, and I think they leave this game victorious, but I would imagine we see a few forced targets to Kupp that could result in turnovers. I don't think it will be too obnoxious, but any slight increase in forced passes on top of what Stafford already does is reason to believe he throws to the other team at least once.

In quite a few of Staffords games without an interception, it was mainly due to the Rams blowing out their opponent and no need to pass the ball much in the second half. This game here has a -4.5 spread in favor of LA, which isn't large enough to deter me from thinking Matt will pass all four quarters. The weather will be nice and pass friendly, which I like for this bet. If there were heavy winds or crazy weather conditions, we could see a battle of Sony Michel vs. Elijah Mitchell instead of two air attacks.

All in all, I think interception bets aren't the smartest bet to make, but we are getting the guy who throws the 2nd most interceptions in the NFL to throw just one against a defense he has already thrown two against. I'm no mathematician, but I think the numbers add up. This could happen during a meaningful play or a hail mary heave as they enter halftime. Either way, I don't care. 

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Josh Gayle
@ThatGuyBets

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
NFL 2021-222012016.42%

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