Share to Facebook
Share to Twitter
Copy Link
Week 18 NFL player prop pick and best bet from OddsChecker betting analyst John Hyslop. Don't miss John's best player prop picks for Saturday's Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs.
ANALYSIS

Week 18 NFL Player Props and Best Bet: We Can Trust Drew Lock

So you think you're a gambler huh? Well, Week 18 is when the real gamblers come out. It's always been that way since the very first Week 18. It's the week that separates the real gamblers from the fake ones. We never really know what's going to happen in any NFL game, but a Week 18 game is an entirely different animal. We have no clue what to expect. A lot of people say that you have to expect the unexpected and if that's the case, we're literally sitting on gold. There's one pick that nobody in their right mind would expect. It's perfect.

Click Here for Broncos vs Chiefs Odds

 logo
Bet $20, Get $100 in Virginia
  • Bet $20, Get $100 on Any Sport
  • Promo Code GET100
  • Virginia Sports Betting Exclusive

Claim Your $100 Now
T&Cs
 logo
Bet $20, Get $100 on Any Sport
  • Bet $20, Get $100 on Any Sport
  • Promo Code GET100
  • Sports Illustrated Exclusive

Claim Your $100 Now
T&Cs
Caesars Sportsbook logo
Wager up to $1,250 and Get Your Stakes Back if You Lose
  • Use Promo Code OCUS1FULL
  • Get Your Stakes Back if You Lose up to $1,250
  • Get 1,000 Reward Credits® and 1,000 Tier Credits

Claim Now
New Customers OnlyT&Cs

Drew Lock Over 206.5 Passing Yards (-115) (Bet $100 to Win $187)

Line Available at DraftKings at time of Publishing

Technically you can do this one at BetMGM too since they have the exact same number. I'm just in New Hampshire at the moment so DraftKings is the only show in town for me. It should be noted that FanDuel has 209.5 (-114) which is playable but obviously, we want the DraftKings/BetMGM number if we can get it.

This feels crazy to think a Drew Lock over is a smart bet but it might be. Mainly because of the number and especially if the game plays out the way I think it will. When you're betting on these props, just do a few mental simulations first. Get a feel for what the final score will be and then work backwards to figure out how it gets there. For this one, all my mental simmys brought me to a bloodbath. I think the Chiefs are going to kill these guys.

Kansas City can still get the number one seed in the AFC so they have to play to win. They've dropped 30+ points in each of the last four games they've played so it's reasonable to think they score a bit Saturday. They hung 22 on this same Broncos team back on December 5th so there is that too.

So if we get a straight beating, then you would have to think the Broncos will throw the ball a little. Possibly even 30+ times. Drew Lock is not a great quarterback but he literally has nothing to lose. The kid is only 25 years old and still thinks he can start in the NFL. He has Jerry Jeudy to work with along with Noah Fant, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick. He has borderline decent weapons.

We have three things working with us here. A ridiculously low number (206.5), a negative game script, and decent options to work with. Lock just went for 245 last week without Patrick and Jeudy. In last season's "prove it" type finale, he hung 339 on the Las Vegas Raiders. As crazy as it sounds, Drew Lock is actually a decent bet to go over 206.5 passing yards on Saturday.

Fanduel logo
$1000 Risk Free Bet
  • Register for a new FanDuel account
  • Deposit up to $1000
  • Get your first deposit matched

Claim Your Risk-Free $1000
New Customers OnlyT&Cs
BetMGM logo
Bet $10, Win $200 If There's A 3-Pointer
  • Deposit $10 into your new BetMGM account
  • Bet $10 on any NBA Moneyline
  • Get $200 if your team scores a three

Claim Your $200 Now
New Customers OnlyT&Cs
Caesars Sportsbook logo
$1100 First Bet Insurance
  • Open a new Caesars Sportsbook account
  • Deposit up to $1100
  • Get your wager insured 100%

Claim Your Insured $1100
New Customers OnlyT&Cs
Twinspires logo
Get A Risk Free $1,000 Bet
  • Claim Risk Free $1000 Bet
  • Famous Horse Racing Brand
  • Use Code BET1000

Claim Your Risk-Free $1000
New Customers OnlyT&Cs
DraftKings logo
Bet $5, Win $200 on the MLB
  • Deposit $5 into your new DraftKings account
  • Bet on any MLB Moneyline
  • Get $200 if your team wins

Claim Now
New Customers OnlyT&Cs
Fanduel logo
Risk-Free Bet Up To $1000
  • Risk Free Bet Up To $1000
  • Available across all sports markets

Claim Now
New Customers OnlyT&Cs
Unibet New Jersey logo
$250 Risk Free Bet
  • Claim A $250 Risk Free Bet
  • Use On Any Sport
  • New Customers Only

Claim Your $250 Now
T&Cs

Article Author

ROI 17.2%
NFLNBAMLBNCAAB

John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.

Expert Handicappers

View all Handicappers
0Betslip

Almost there!

We are loading your bets, and they will be here in a second.