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Week 18 NFL player prop pick and best bet from OddsChecker betting analyst John Hyslop. Don't miss John's best player prop picks for Saturday's Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs.

Week 18 NFL Player Props and Best Bet: We Can Trust Drew Lock

So you think you're a gambler huh? Well, Week 18 is when the real gamblers come out. It's always been that way since the very first Week 18. It's the week that separates the real gamblers from the fake ones. We never really know what's going to happen in any NFL game, but a Week 18 game is an entirely different animal. We have no clue what to expect. A lot of people say that you have to expect the unexpected and if that's the case, we're literally sitting on gold. There's one pick that nobody in their right mind would expect. It's perfect.

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Drew Lock Over 206.5 Passing Yards (-115) (Bet $100 to Win $187)

Line Available at DraftKings at time of Publishing

Technically you can do this one at BetMGM too since they have the exact same number. I'm just in New Hampshire at the moment so DraftKings is the only show in town for me. It should be noted that FanDuel has 209.5 (-114) which is playable but obviously, we want the DraftKings/BetMGM number if we can get it.

This feels crazy to think a Drew Lock over is a smart bet but it might be. Mainly because of the number and especially if the game plays out the way I think it will. When you're betting on these props, just do a few mental simulations first. Get a feel for what the final score will be and then work backwards to figure out how it gets there. For this one, all my mental simmys brought me to a bloodbath. I think the Chiefs are going to kill these guys.

Kansas City can still get the number one seed in the AFC so they have to play to win. They've dropped 30+ points in each of the last four games they've played so it's reasonable to think they score a bit Saturday. They hung 22 on this same Broncos team back on December 5th so there is that too.

So if we get a straight beating, then you would have to think the Broncos will throw the ball a little. Possibly even 30+ times. Drew Lock is not a great quarterback but he literally has nothing to lose. The kid is only 25 years old and still thinks he can start in the NFL. He has Jerry Jeudy to work with along with Noah Fant, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick. He has borderline decent weapons.

We have three things working with us here. A ridiculously low number (206.5), a negative game script, and decent options to work with. Lock just went for 245 last week without Patrick and Jeudy. In last season's "prove it" type finale, he hung 339 on the Las Vegas Raiders. As crazy as it sounds, Drew Lock is actually a decent bet to go over 206.5 passing yards on Saturday.

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Article Author

ROI 17.2%

John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.

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