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Taking a look at a player prop and how the weather will become a factor in this one for the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen.
ANALYSIS

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Prediction: How Weather Will Play A Factor

As we enter the last week of the regular season we have a matchup between a shoo-in playoff team and a reeling four win team just looking to end the season on a high note. I found something that after some digging proved to have some nice value.

Bills vs Jets odds

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Josh Allen Under 35.5 longest completion (-120 @ DK)

At first glance, this seems like crazy talk. Josh Allen has one of the strongest arms in the NFL and gets a favorable matchup vs the Jets. Both of those are certainly true statements but I am very happily riding with the under here. Before you begin throwing tomatoes at your laptop or phone screen allow me to explain why I’m on this prop and why I would love it if you joined me.

Josh Allen has only had one game with a completion of 36+ in his last 11 games. I know that game that was the one exception was against this Jets team but stay with me here. I put a lot of stock into that 10 of last 11 game stat because it shows that Buffalo is happily running the ball. In a game vs the Jets, as 16 point favorites why not try to keep your quarterback fresh entering the postseason? Anytime you can get a stat that has hit in 10 of its last 11 for -120 it would feel wrong not to take it.

My absolute favorite angle of this play is the weather. This game projects to have wind gusts of 20 mph or higher. Showers aren’t projected to occur during the game but just prior which could play a factor with a wet field as well. Although our bet has nothing to do with fantasy football in the slightest, I would like to share a stat with you guys. Quarterbacks in games with winds of 20 MPH or higher average 17% less fantasy points. 35.5 would probably be the same number if the game had perfect conditions, so we’re getting a number that hasn't yet been adjusted.

Buffalo should be content running a ton and the 16 point game spread leads me to believe that if we’re good through three quarters then we’re in the clear the rest of the way. He could just hand it to Singletary the whole 4th or sit on the bench, either way, I don’t mind. The Jets have actually looked improved at preventing the long ball in the last month. In their last four games. they have only allowed one reception of 36+. I think we found a sneaky play not many people will be on but it has supreme value. Let's hope we see a lot of Singletary on Sunday so we don’t even have to sweat while watching.

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Picks

  • Josh Allen Under 35.5 longest completion (-120)

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Article Author

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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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