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In a divisional matchup between the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots, can the Dolphins keep it close in Week 18?
ANALYSIS

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Best Bet: Trusting Miami to Cover

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Dolphins vs Patriots odds

It's the last week of the NFL regular season, it's crazy that 18 weeks have already passed, and we didn't miss one game in the NFL, but every other sport has cancellations.  That tells you something about this league and we know a lot of teams will tank or have called it a year or have nothing to play for, but this game will not be one of those because of who is playing each other.

There is a slim chance once the Patriots see the Bills beating up the Jets and they know they can't win the AFC East they may bench a few guys so they don't get hurt. Also, playing in the late afternoon slate they will know what happened with the Colts earlier as Colts vs. Jaguars is actually the most important game for the AFC playoff picture.

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If the Colts lose lots of stuff changes, if they win though, the Patriots must decide since it's HIGHLY unlikely the Bills will lose to the Jets if the Patriots want to be in the five or six spot. We doubt Bill Belichick would ever admit it but we feel the Pats would rather avoid the Bills again and play the less experienced (and covid stricken) Bengals as the six seed.

There is one team that always gets the Patriots even when the GOAT was there and that's the Dolphins at home. In 2020, Miami won 22-12 at home, in 2019 Miami decided to win at the Pats that year as they have already this year. Maybe the best one of all came in 2018 the Miami Miracle game, where we saw a crazy ending and I actually won that game ats and straight up. Again, in 2017 they won 27-20 at home, you get the drift by now.

The past is the past, but Miami always plays the Patriots tough at home and more importantly this year they have incentives as Coach Flores loves to beat his old boss. The Fins started 1-7 and were embarrassing and now even though they had a chance to win nine in a row and make the playoffs they still have a chance at a winning season which would be huge for this team and mentality.

Miami has a rare chance at a sweep of the Pats (last time was 2000) thanks to an opening day win that we remember as we had Miami that day +4.5 and now, they are +7 at home. A fumble cost the Pats and as much as they want revenge, laying a touchdown on the road in a place they don't do well is not something we want to be a part of. 

The Patriots just put up 50 for the second time this year with a rookie QB, that's unheard of, but also last time they did that against the cellar-dwelling Jets. They then played the Chargers on the road and escaped with a 3-point win.

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The Pats are far from a healthy team with Nelson Agholor out with a concussion, Kyle Dugger and Ronnie Perkins are out with injuries, the kicker even has a knee issue. Plus, this game will be meaningless if the Bills beat the Jets.

Even Big Bad Bill knows the potential reward that comes with a loss this week. The Pats are a cold-weather team they have admitted it as Devin McCourty their captain said "It's hard to go from the cold weather in Boston to 80 degrees (in Miami). It's always a shock in pregame."

When you have to go into the heat it takes a lot out of you especially when your last few games have been in Buffalo and New England, and they haven't played in hot weather pretty much all year. With almost no chance to win the division and move up (we are sure they will be checking the Bills score), with a chance to play a weaker opponent if they lose, with Bill being 2-7 in Miami in December or January, we just can't see Miami losing by more than a touchdown. We might even sprinkle some on the money line. Play it smart and get the +7 no matter what but a little sprinkle on the +250 wouldn't hurt.

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Pick

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