Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Picks: Expect a Big Day From Diontae Johnson

Can Diontae Johnson go off in the final game? Our guy Josh Gayle is all over it in Baltimore vs Pittsburgh.
Josh Gayle |
Sat, January 8, 2:41 PM EST | 4 min read
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Picks: Expect a Big Day From Diontae Johnson

Two divisional rivals duking it out in the last week of the regular season, it’s beautiful. Both teams hold minimal playoff chances, but will each be motivated to win and see if other teams can help them out. I took a prop that seems too good to be true.

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Diontae Johnson Over 5.5 receptions (-125 @ Caesars)

Yes, you read that right. We’re getting the target hog himself to catch six or more balls. The sportsbooks are giving out free money this week, bold strategy let's see how it pays off. Diontae has hit this prop in 10 of 15 games and even more impressively so has five or more receptions in 14 of 15. When these two teams faced off earlier in the season we saw Diontae reel in 8 catches. In that game, he had 11 targets and if he sees the same amount of looks he should have no issue getting us there.

Baltimore has allowed at least one player to have 6+ catches in five of their last six games. Diontae should no doubt be the Steelers top passing option on Sunday. I also love the added angle of this being more than likely being Big Ben's last game. After a long and successful career, we should see a motivated Roethlisberger to end his career with a great game. 

Baltimore is entering this game as -3.5 favorites so I expect Pittsburgh to pass in all four quarters. The thing I love about Diontae reception bets is how safe some of his routes are. Pittsburgh creates plays to just get the ball in his hands and see what he can do. They can throw six bubble screens to Johnson and he can end with less than 10 yards and I wouldn't care in the slightest. This prop is just set too low. I feel like 6.5 would be fair at -110 but we’re getting a full reception less with minimal juice.

Lastly, as I do with every prop I look at the weather conditions. We are looking at light rain but no real wind to cause any concerns. I actually think the light rain can help incentivize Tomlin to elect to call more short throws. Johnson excels in this area and we could see him get peppered with targets in the short pass game. I expect this prop to move so after reading this I would place the bet immediately.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens Pick

Josh Gayle
@ThatGuyBets

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
NFL 2021-222012016.42%

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