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AFC East rivals face off in the playoffs this Saturday night, player prop specialist Josh Gayle has narrowed down his favorite bet for when the Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots in the AFC Wild Card round.
ANALYSIS

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Picks: Fade Mac Jones in the AFC Wild Card

Now I certainly don't want to ruin anyone's fun on Wild Card Weekend, so I feel bad putting out an under, but the value is undeniable. Mac Jones has thrown for multiple touchdowns in just 7/17 games and now gets the team who allows the fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL. Mac Jones has played two games and hasn't thrown a single touchdown pass in eight quarters. One of those games had weather conditions unlike any we've ever seen before, but there was no excuse for Jones in the second game. Buffalos defense is so stout against allowing passing touchdowns, and I expect that to remain the case on Saturday.

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Mac Jones Under 1.5 passing TD’s / Buffalo +7.5 (-144)

Line Available at Caesars at Time of Publishing

Buffalo allows just 0.71 passing touchdowns a game which is the best by quite a wide margin. Only three quarterbacks have thrown for multiple touchdowns against Buffalo all year. Two of those quarterbacks are Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. There is no disrespect to Mac Jones, but I don't view them through the same lens. Mac Jones has had an outstanding rookie campaign, but this is his first-ever playoff game, and it's against a defense that has already been proven effective against him.

The initial prop I loved was betting Mac Jones under 1.5 passing touchdowns, but it was too much juice for me. I paired it with Bills +7.5 because it's a spread that they have covered both times against New England, and they head into Saturday as four-point favorites already, so we get an 11.5 point advantage on the main spread. This bet can still hit for the "never bet against Belichick" crowd. Patriots can win a low-scoring game by seven or less, and we still cash here. Buffalo has only lost by eight or more points once all year, so it feels like a safe second leg.

Lastly, the weather projects to be very cold in Buffalo. Temperatures under 10 degrees usually indicate lower scoring games which would play right into our hands. Both quarterbacks are no stranger to the cold, but it's still a positive angle that we don't see either team blow the other out. If the Patriots decide to score (how dare they?), it would be really beneficial if it was Damien Harris or Rhamondre Stevenson, and I really like the odds of one of those two finding paydirt as Buffalo has struggled in recent weeks at preventing running backs from finding the endzone. I think this parlay I made will change in odds sooner rather than later, so I would act fast after reading this.

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Article Author

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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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