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The Cincinnati Bengals are hosting the Las Vegas Raiders in the AFC Wild Card this Saturday. Player prop expert Josh Gayle is here with his favorite bet you don't want to miss for it.
ANALYSIS

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Picks: Trust Joe Mixon in the AFC Wild Card Game

Wildcard weekend. Just saying that phrase brings a smile to my face. What's better than watching two teams face off in a win or go home game while having a bet on it too? This is truly what the definition of happiness is. I found my favorite play for this game and paired it with something that is undefeated on the season to help bring the juice down. I think we've got a good one here.

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Joe Mixon Anytime TD Scorer / Both Teams Over 0.5 TD (-145)

Line Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing

For those on DraftKings who can't find both teams to score a touchdown, it is under "Same Game Parlay" and then "Team TD Props." MGM has Mixon to score at -200, and DK had it at -165. Neither felt like juice that we needed to pay, so I attached this. The beauty of this attachment is that we're already halfway there if Mixon hits, and all we need is a Las Vegas touchdown. Considering that they're 17/17 on the season, scoring at least one touchdown, it felt like a no-brainer to help bring the juice down. Also, Cincinnati is hovering in the league standings for points allowed, so the defense doesn't scare me into thinking they can prevent touchdowns all day.

Now let's get into the meat and potatoes of this bet, Joe Mixon, to score a touchdown. Mixon had 13 rushing touchdowns this year and three receiving touchdowns as well. He had 16 touchdowns in 16 games, which is good for one a game on average. He faced off against Vegas once this year already and found the endzone twice. That is such a good sign heading into Saturday that this man already asserted his dominance over this defense, not just scoring twice but putting the team on his back rushing 30 times. Mixon shouldn't be rested much due to the high stakes of it being playoffs. I don't envision any Samaje Perine vultures.

So we established what you already know. That Joe Mixon guy, pretty good at this football thing. Now let's deep dive into this Las Vegas defense. The Raiders defense allowed the 6th most rushing touchdowns and 3rd most receiving touchdowns to the running back position. A running back either had a rushing or receiving touchdown in 15/17 games against Las Vegas this year. The only two that didn't were the Giants and Dolphins, two teams with the fewest touchdowns at the position, so it makes perfect sense. A team like the Bengals, on the other hand, would not.

The matchup is good, the player scores a lot, and the other leg to help with our juice has never lost. I thought the books would get sharper as the year progressed (and they have), but this is a really nice bet to get available for us in the playoffs. The weather doesn't project any rain, although it will be south of 30 degrees. I don't think either team should have too much trouble moving the ball down the field, and if Cincinnati finds themselves in the red zone, they would be foolish not to hand it to their star back. Let's start the Wild Card weekend 1-0!

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Article Author

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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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