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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles face off in the playoffs this Sunday, player prop specialist Josh Gayle has narrowed down his favorite bet for when the Buccaneers host the Eagles in the NFC Wild Card round.
ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles Player Prop Picks: Feed Playoff Lenny

Tom Brady and the Bucs versus Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. If you're a watcher of football, then you should know how this one plays out. I found my favorite prop for this game, and it seems too good to be true. 

Click Here for Buccaneers vs Eagles Odds

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Leonard Fournette Over 14.5 rush attempts (-140) (Bet $140 to Win $100)

*EDITORS NOTE: FOURNETTE WAS NOT ACTIVATED AND WILL NOT PLAY ON SUNDAY*

Playoff Lenny has that nickname for a reason. He is known for performing well when the games matter most, and I don't see that changing this upcoming Sunday. Tampa Bay enters this game as 8.5 point favorites, so I expect running to be a viable option throughout all four quarters. The last time these two teams faced off in Week 6, we saw Fournette rush the ball an astounding 22 times. We can see him rush it 7 fewer times and still cash. That's so very generous.

If Tampa goes up big early, why would they risk injury to Brady? We could see some late game pounding of the rock, and who better than Fournette to carry the load. Both Jones and Vaughn have had flashes but have failed to show the consistency of Fournette. This number feels so disrespectful. If it weren't juiced, we would be laying more than 1 unit, but we'll be smart with our bankroll management even though I feel very strongly about this one hitting. As we all know, being smart isn't fun, but it's the way to go. I've been avoiding talking about my favorite part of this bet, but I'll give you all the goods now. 

Sunday at 1:00 at Raymond James Stadium projects to have 25 MPH winds and thunderstorms. If the NFL delays the game due to the lightning, I still see heavy winds in the forecast the rest of the day north of 20 MPH. Tom Brady has tons of practice playing in poor weather conditions, but running the ball is safer. In games with heavy winds, we consistently see teams elect to run the ball more frequently, and Fournette can hit this number even without getting help from mother nature. 

I wrote down my projections for rushing attempts props and had Fournette projected for his prop to open at 17.5. With the weather, the game script, and his history of success in the playoffs, this feels like a knockout of the park. The weather should also make the Eagles passing the ball more difficult, which will help Tampa Bay control time of possession. Jalen Hurts struggles to throw completions in perfect weather games, throw him in a rainstorm with 25 MPH winds, and he might have a panic attack. I would get this in as soon as possible. Not only do I predict that this will change, I know it will. If you're reading this and the line has moved, I still find it worth betting at 15.5. Let's have a sweat-free cash to open our Sunday!

Article Author

ROI 11.2%
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insightpicks

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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