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Can Big Ben go out with a bang in what's likely to be his last game? NFL handicapper Lightning Locks takes a look at the Chiefs vs. Steelers matchup and gives his best bet.

Sunday Night Football Best Bet: Ride This Can't-Miss Play for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick: Ben Roethlisberger Over 226.5 Passing Yards: -110 (Bet $110 to Win $100)

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Sunday night football has a new expectation after last week's amazing Chargers-Raiders game. Let's just say this game won't live up to it, but there is still money to be made tonight.

First of all, these teams just played three weeks ago and Kansas City won 36-10 in a game that was over at halftime. The Chiefs did that without tight end Travis Kelce, who is a huge weapon, but they did have Clyde Edwards Helaire, who is out tonight. That helps our prop -- less running equals more time of possession for Pittsburgh. 

Pittsburgh looked dead in the water after that game, but they got lucky and have a shot at revenge. However, realistically, this is probably the last game of Big Ben's career. 

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The last time they played it was a blowout which usually leads to some garbage-time stats, and that is one way to look at this game. The other way to look at it is that Kansas City has not been playing great defense recently, giving up 28, 34, 28 in the other games surrounding the Pittsburgh game. Additionally, in that game, Pittsburgh clearly played it wrong running the ball way too much. The Steelers will also have JuJu Smith Schuster back tonight. Big Ben loves JuJu, who wanted to be there for him for his last game. 

The Chiefs defense isn't that good, as we said, and they are worse in the secondary, ranking 27th this year giving up over 250 yards passing. So as we said, if it's a blowout, we get garbage yards because Ben isn't being benched for Rudolph. If it's a close game, with weapons like JuJu, Diontae Johnson, Freiermuth, Claypool, and Najee Harris out of the backfield, the Steelers game plan should be to pass and attack this Kansas City secondary.

Pittsburgh is also a better passing team than they are rushing, ranking 15th through the air while only 29th on the ground. The Steelers will either pass the ball tonight, or this game will be over quickly. 

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In the first game between these guys, Pittsburgh ran it 25 times and threw it 43 times (35 for Ben), but they also benched Ben, which isn't happening tonight. This is a proud organization and they aren't going to get blown out a second time in the playoffs.

Big Ben has thrown for over 226.5 yards 11 times this year (he did get 3,740 yards), and with his favorite receiver back and Kansas City's regressing recently, this is a game where we feel Ben can leave with a big performance. 

Remember, The Chiefs' defense gives up over 250 yards a game, and when they score, they tend to score fast, so we have a tremendous shot of a lot of attempts and a lot of completions. Given all the weapons at his disposal, we feel Ben has a shot of getting at least 250 yards passing. 

In what will be his last game (sorry), Ben will go out throwing -- so let's take the over on 226.5.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Market Total

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