Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction: Expect Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes to Put up Points

NFL expert Mike Spector offers his best bet for the Divisional Round matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.
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Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction: ExpectJosh Allen and Patrick Mahomes to Put up Points

Is this Divisional Round game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs a quasi AFC-Championship matchup? According to oddsmakers, it is, as the Chiefs (+175) and Bills (+225) have the two-shortest odds (per DraftKings) to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. In last year’s AFC Championship, the Bills and Chiefs combined for 62 points, easily cashing the over in a game with a projected total of 54.5. So are we in for another shootout this year?

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Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs INJURY REPORT

BUFFALO

Questionable: DE Mario Addison

OUT: CB Tre’Davious White, G Ike Boettger, DT Justin Zimmer

KANSAS CITY

QUESTIONABLE: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire

OUT: CB Rashad Fenton, OT Lucas Niang

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Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

Given how well Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen played last week, the over figures to be a popular play in this game despite a gaudy 55-point total. And while we typically prefer to be on the contrarian side with our wagers, we cannot help but think we are destined for a back-and-forth shootout in this primetime affair.

Not many teams have ever done what Josh Allen and the Bills just did to a Bill Belichick-coached defense, especially in the playoffs. Buffalo became the first team in the Super Bowl era to score a touchdown on their first seven drives of a playoff game. In addition, they became the second team in the Super Bowl era with zero punts and zero turnovers in a postseason game. 

The most important thing about Buffalo’s 47-17 beatdown of New England was that Josh Allen dispelled the notion that he would perpetually play poorly in frigid weather. Entering last week, Josh Allen’s 50% in freezing game-time temperatures ranked last among 41 qualified quarterbacks with a minimum of five starts over the previous 15 seasons. In addition, his 6.0 yards per attempt ranked 36th, and his 6:7 TD:INT ratio ranked 35th. However, the below-zero wind chills in Buffalo did not affect him last week, as he became the third quarterback in playoff history with five passing touchdowns, zero interceptions, and an 80% completion percentage. If that was not enough, Allen added 66 rushing yards for good measure. 

While we had never seen a performance like that out of Allen in the cold or a playoff atmosphere, we have grown accustomed to what Patrick Mahomes did last week. Mahomes had his fourth career game with 400 passing yards and five passing touchdowns. And those passing touchdowns came in a hurry, as he tossed them all over 11:31 of game action. As a result, Mahomes improved to 7-2 in the playoffs, winning his first-ever start in a Wild Card game. He is also 6-1 with 21 total touchdowns (20 passing) and one turnover in seven career playoff games vs. AFC teams. He looks to lead his team to another Super Bowl run for the third straight season, which the Patriots last accomplished from 2016-18.

Both defenses are capable of turning in solid performances. Entering last week, Kansas City led the NFL in PPG allowed (16.1) and takeaways (22) since Week 8. Buffalo also finished the regular season ranked first in total defense and first in scoring defense, and the last three such teams to do that made the Super Bowl. However, both teams’ quarterbacks are playing too well at the moment for any of that to matter. In addition, with both teams’ offenses playing at such a high level, it should force Kansas City and Buffalo to play extra aggressively on offense, going for it more on fourth downs and looking for touchdowns instead of settling for field goals.

The over is 8-0 in Buffalo’s last eight games as underdogs and has cashed in each of Kansas City’s last six games overall. While we will almost assuredly be on the public side by backing the over, we think Mahomes and Allen will put on a show for the ages and want to cash in when it happens.

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Line Movement

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

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Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest

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