Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Picks: Trust Bass With Your Cash

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs player prop picks. We’ve got to get weird, it’s the only way. In a game featuring some of the NFL’s most elite players, we went a completely different route.
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Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Picks: Trust Bass With Your Cash

Let's be honest, this bet is more about my belief in the Bills' offense than my love for Tyler Bass. He saw 7 XPA opportunities last week and only made 5 of them, so obviously I love how much Buffalo scores more than his leg. Bass has hit this prop in 6 straight and for as much flack as I gave him for last week's performance, he actually hit all 51 XPA opportunities in the regular season. So, in a way, it’s a good thing he had some misses last week because he doesn’t seem like the type to have back-to-back shaky weeks.

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Tyler Bass o2.5 XPM @ -120 (Bet $100 to win $83.33)

Odds available at Caesars at time of publishing

So, of all of the bets for this game, why this one? First off, I love the total of this game sitting at 53.5. This game projects to be very close and high scoring and all we need is three touchdowns to get us home here. If you were to just bet on Buffalo team touchdowns that would be at -175 so I will gladly take the 55 cent discount and hope Bass does his job. Kansas City and Buffalo have played this season already, in that game we saw Bass hit all 5 of his XP opportunities and all we need for Sunday is a measly 3.

I know betting on kickers isn’t the most exciting, but there’s no denying getting this at -120 holds value. Buffalo looked absolutely dominant against a tough New England defense last week scoring 7 touchdowns, you’re supposed to think they cant now get 3 against a less threatening Chiefs defense? Chiefs aren’t playing an old Big Ben this week, this is Josh Allen looking for ultimate revenge from last year's game. If Chiefs win, I expect it to be high scoring and because of Mahomes greatness and not some defensive battle.

Lastly, and most importantly for kickers. Will this game have such crazy winds that teams will elect to go for two every time? Not even close, this game projects less than 5 MPH winds so Bass should have no excuse to miss any of his chances. In the rare event that Buffalo goes for two at any point I think Buffalo certainly has the upside to score four touchdowns as well. This prop feels fairly set, but it should be mega juiced. The fact that it’s not makes it a no-brainer to throw a unit on.

ROI 5%

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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