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Lightning Locks shares his favorite play from the Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans game which is a Joe Mixon prop.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans Player Prop Pick: Riding a Joe Mixon Under

For the first game of the Divisional Round, we go to Tennessee and watch the Cinderella story aka the Bengals take on the number one seed Titans who have their King back. It's a very interesting game and should be fun to watch but let's focus on one thing in this game and that's Joe Mixon the Bengals running back. 

First, let's look at what's important: the Bengals acquired Ja'Marr Chase in the NFL Draft for their young quarterback, Joe Burrow. He also has Tee Higgins (over 1000 yards receiving), Tyler Boyd, a pretty good tight end in CJ Uzomah, and the man we care about running back Joe Mixon who caught 42 passes this year.

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That's the reason this team threw for over 4800 yards this year. You have the seventh-ranked passing offense and you are playing a team who was 25th against the pass. Sounds like you should throw the ball against them because I know I would. On the other hand, the Titans have the number two rush defense giving up less than 85 yards rushing a game and the Bengals were the 23rd best rushing offense so would you run on the second-best run defense or throw? I think we all know the answer to that one.  

Joe Mixon last week had 17 attempts for 48 yards rushing against the Raiders. The Bengals had 5 other guys get attempts including two wide receivers. Going back to the regular season in Joe's last five games he had 46, 65, 58, 58, and 54 yards rushing, not great numbers and four of those are less than today's total.

Going back further into the year Joe had games with 64, 33, 59, 33 which again almost all numbers that win  for us today. Mixon only had three games all year where he broke 100 because this team is a passing team and playing one of the best defenses against the run you don't run on them. Only four times all year did Mixon get over 20 attempts so you are looking at 12-18 carries today for him and his last 5 weeks he didn't even average 3.5 yards a carry.

You can do the math and see that 15 carries at four yards a pop is the number we are trying to stay under today. We can also add that Tennessee clearly likes to run the ball even without Henry for over a month they finished fifth with over 141 yards a game and when you run the ball you run the clock and if Tennessee gets a early lead the Bengals will not run to catch up obviously with all those receivers.

The Titans run defense held Houston to 64 yards rushing, Miami 74, the 49ers who love to run to 83, Pittsburgh to 35, Jacksonville eight yards yes eight is not a typo, we feel you get the point by now this team doesn't allow you to run on them especially in the last few games.

We feel we have made a case here for Joe Mixon to not get over 60.5 rushing yards as the Bengals don't run, teams don't run on the Titans, the team uses receivers and has other running backs to get rushing attempts, and with the Titans using clock as they love to do this will minimize the possessions for the Bengals. They can throw all they want to Mixon as long as they don't let him run. Your play for the Bengals-Titans game is to go under 60.5 rushing yards for Joe Mixon. Let's hope the math equals a winner today. 

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