Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Picks: Travis Kelce Dominates

Will Travis Kelce go off? Gray Gutfreund seems to think so.
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Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Picks: Travis Kelce Dominates

One of the most anticipated Divisional round games in recent memory is on the horizon. The Kansas City Chiefs are hosting the Buffalo Bills in a battle that will likely determine the AFC's representative in Super Bowl 56 in a few weeks. The Bills destroyed Kansas City all the way back in Week 5, but will we see a repeat performance this Sunday?

The Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, are 2-point home favorites for the biggest game of the season to date. I believe in the powerful duo to get the job done and get Kansas City to their fourth consecutive conference championship game.

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Travis Kelce Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-114) (Bet $114 to win $100)

*Odds Available at FanDuel at Time of Publishing*

Travis Kelce might be the most consistent player in football. He just put together his sixth consecutive 1,000+ yard season and was selected as a Pro Bowler for his seventh straight season. He's averaging 77.3 yards per game since 2016. And, in 13 career playoff games, he has 1,100 receiving yards, good for 84.6 YPG.

Kelce is one of the best playoff performers of the last decade. After a 108 yard performance in a win over the Steelers last weekend, the Kansas City tight end has 100+ yards in 4 consecutive postseason games. In 9 total playoff games with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback, Kelce has reached the century mark in 6 of them and is averaging 89.6 YPG. The Mahomes-Kelce connection is one of the hardest to stop in football, and that doesn't change in postseason play.

The matchup may scare you a little bit. And that's okay - the Bills are a terrific pass defense. However, we have to realize that Kelce is basically matchup-proof. He doesn't seem very fast or elusive, yet somehow finds a way to get open when Mahomes needs him most, regardless of who's defending him. He's found some success against this same Bills defense over the last two seasons, averaging 80 yards per game in three matchups with Buffalo since last season. His 13-reception, 118-yard thrashing of the Bills in the AFC Championship game last season speaks for itself.

I have another matchup-based note to ease our concerns as well. Buffalo hardly faced any formidable opponents for most of the season, especially at the tight end position. The Bills had just six matchups all season against tight ends that averaged at least 40 receiving yards. 3 of the 6 exceeded their 2021 receiving yards average. Kelce enters this contest averaging 72.5 yards per game and should be force-fed targets all afternoon.

Don't be shocked to see the 32-year-old tight end deliver another vintage postseason performance this Sunday.

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Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.

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