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Player props expert Josh Gayle knows it’s easy to want to get cute finding a player prop no one has thought of for the AFC Championship. Instead, he's taking the best player's overs for a chance to return to the Super Bowl.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals AFC Championship Player Prop Picks: Who Better to Trust Than Patrick Mahomes?

Patrick Mahomes has shifted another gear in these playoffs. It’s almost like in the regular season he’s just going through the motions and when the games matter most he turns into a magician. In the two playoff games, he has played he is averaging 391 yards and 4 touchdown throws per game. Those are the stats I put up on Madden after my favorite team loses and he’s doing it in real life like it’s nothing. Why wouldn’t we want to put our money on a guy playing some of the best football of his life? 

Click Here for Chiefs vs Bengals AFC Championship Odds

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Patrick Mahomes 2+ Passing TDs / 250+ yards (-150) (Bet $150 to Win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*

Mahomes has achieved 250 yards and 2 touchdowns in 7 straight games. Among those 7 games was also against this same Cincinnati team and he looks more comfortable as a passer now than he even did then. He’s playing so composed and not throwing any ill-advised throws. This is proven as he’s only thrown one interception in his last 5 games. The Bengals haven't given up this combo in quite a while but I view that as irrelevant because comparing Mahomes to mortal humans like Ryan Tannehill isn't an accurate way of assessing what will happen on Sunday.

This AFC Championship game projects to be fun and high scoring, just how we like it. The books project this game at 54.5 with the Chiefs as touchdown favorites. Essentially they see this game at 31-24 Chiefs and if that’s the case I can't imagine Kansas City getting to 31 points through the ground game. When there are fewer games to focus on we see Vegas put out some of the sharpest lines of the year, that’s why it’s the perfect time to address some alternative lines to open up some value and give us an edge.

Lastly, the weather projects to be more than sufficient. For Arrowhead in January, we will definitely take temperatures in the 40’s with barely any wind. All signs point to another offensive explosion from Mahomes and I won’t be that guy wondering why I didn’t take something so obvious. This man has the playoff experience, the great play as of late, and as has already proven he can do it against this team. Don’t let the juice scare you off, this is a good play and we only pay the juice if we lose. I don’t plan to do that.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals AFC Championship Game Line Movement

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Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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