Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers NFC Championship Player Prop Picks: Van Jefferson Is the Gift That Keeps on Giving
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers NFC Championship Player Prop Picks: Van Jefferson Is the Gift That Keeps on Giving
There are three games left in the season so we’ll get to the goods right away. Van Jefferson has hit this prop in 16/19 games including the two playoff games. Getting any prop for -115 with an 84% hit rate at this point in the season is truly a gift. Van Jefferson has proven to be a sufficient WR3 and downfield target. San Francisco’s main focus will be limiting Kupp and OBJ which should leave players like Van Jefferson to have favorable coverage to play a factor in the game.
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Van Jefferson longest reception Over 17.5 (-115) (Bet $115 to Win $100)
*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*
These division rivals obviously faced off twice in the regular season and in those two games, we saw Van Jefferson hit in both games. Catches of 33 and 24 yards were well over the 18 that we need this upcoming Sunday. The Niners rank in the middle of the league in average yards per reception to wide receivers so it’s not a particularly tough matchup that needs avoiding. Van Jefferson is just one of those guys who might only catch 3 balls but among those looks will have a big-time play. Kupp has great success against San Francisco in both games this year so I envision a real effort to limit him and whether it’s successful or not it will put Van Jefferson in advantageous spots.
The game has a 3.5 point spread so I imagine this prop having legs through all four quarters. The cool thing about this bet is that it could cash on the first drive on the game or the last. This number doesn't seem properly adjusted due to his rate and it's more of a reflection of his total yardage. Van Jefferson is kind of a unicorn in the sense that most of his yardage will come from one big catch. The average depth of reception for Van Jefferson is over 13 yards which is nicely above league average.
With longest reception props there’s not much to speak on outside of trusting the data and the matchup. The last worthwhile angle to address is the weather. This game will be played in Los Angeles which projects to have nearly 70-degree weather with minimal winds. This will be pass-happy weather which definitely plays into the hands of the Rams. I envision my old Detroit pal Matthew Stafford to keep slinging the ball and do what it takes to make it to the big game. More importantly, I see Van Jefferson making a big play to help him get there.