Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals AFC Championship: Joe Burrow Player Prop Pick

Handicapper Matt McCuen takes a look at the AFC Championship game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals. He has his eyes set on his top Joe Burrow player prop pick here.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals AFC Championship: Joe Burrow Player Prop Pick

On Sunday, we will see two of the best gunslingers in the game go head to head as the Cincinnati Bengals will travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. The path for these teams was pretty interesting as the Bengals did not come into the season with expectations to make a Super Bowl. For the Chiefs, this is what we expected as they have been in the Super Bowl the last two seasons winning one of those Super Bowls over the San Francisco 49ers and losing the other, last season to Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

These two teams played earlier in the season in a game that was one of my favorites all year long. We were on the Bengals +5, and the first half looked pretty ugly for the Bengals, but they were able to make a comeback and actually win the game outright. Ja'Marr Chase put up one of the best games we have seen him play in the NFL and one of the best games ever by a rookie wideout. He will look to run that performance back in Sunday's game against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs will have to have a better game plan versus the rookie star and just the whole Bengals offense in general. Patrick Mahomes was great in that Bengals game the first time they played as well. Mahomes went 26/35 in the first meeting, putting up 259 yards and a pair of touchdowns. On the flip side, Burrow was unreal going 30/39, putting up an amazing 446 yards in the act. In that first meeting, Joe Burrow had such a good performance that I am writing an entire piece on just him for this game on Sunday. That's how cool Joe Burrow is.

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Joe Burrow Over 288.5 Passing Yards (-110) (Bet $110 to Win $100)

*Odds Available at FanDuel at Time of Publishing*

The pick I am going with in this game is going to be very simple; the play is Joe Burrow over 288.5 passing yards. I am not complicating a simple thing, Burrow has been one of the best Quarterbacks in all of the NFL the last month, and let's be honest, this game is set to be a shootout. The Chief's defense looked like the old Chiefs' defense facing a great Quarterback last week in Josh Allen, and so I expect a lot of the same things this week by the Bengal's offense.

Burrow has been on a roll as of late, and the only way you beat the Kansas City Chiefs is by keeping up and putting up big points. I think this game script greatly favors this play for two reasons. The first is what I just mentioned the only way the Bengals win this game is to win the shootout. The strong point of this team is their star Quarterback and their three great wide receivers. They can also use Joe Mixon on screens and short routes in the passing game.

The second reason I love this play is I believe the Bengals will be in a negative game script. The Chiefs offense should have little issues with this Cincy defense, so I believe the vast majority of this game, the Bengals will be playing from behind, which will require them to play fast in the second half throwing the ball most of their plays. This is a very beatable Chiefs secondary, and with the talent the Bengals have at their skill positions paired with having Joe Burrow, I believe he will soar over this number this weekend. I can not wait for this game to kick off and make some money off it!

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals AFC Championship Game Line Movement

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ROI 28%
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Matt McCuen is a native of Delco, PA. He has been working in the sports gambling industry and creating content for the last few years. He is an expert in numerous different sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and collegiate sports. You can follow Matt on Twitter at @DeadPresPicks.

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