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Player prop expert Gray Gutfreund is here with his top player prop bet for the Chiefs vs. Bengals AFC Championship game. He breaks it down here.
ANALYSIS

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals AFC Championship Player Prop Pick: Will the Bengals Lean on Joe Burrow?

We've reached the most exciting stretch of the NFL season. The nine days that include the Divisional Round games and the Conference Championship games are arguably the most fun days of football season. We still don't have to worry about feeling sad that the season's over and there won't be more football to bet on (after the Super Bowl). And, the games matter a ton and feature a few of the NFL's most compelling teams.

The AFC Conference Championship game will star two of the league's top young passers: Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. Mahomes is on a completely different level right now, and the Chiefs seem likely to put up a ton of points. That leaves a likely pass-heavy game script for the Bengals, which makes it easy for us to bank on Burrow.

Click Here for Chiefs vs Bengals AFC Championship Odds

Joe Burrow Over 24.5 Completions (-115) (Bet $115 to Win $100)

*Odds Available at Caesars at Time of Publishing*

Joe Burrow has been truly remarkable in his second NFL season. He took home the Pro Football Writers' Comeback Player of the Year award on Friday morning. And, it was undeniably well deserved. The LSU product led the league in both completion percentage and yards per attempt in 2021. He also finished the season stronger than anyone could've imagined, putting up a pair of statement games against the Ravens and this same Chiefs squad to close out the regular season.

Burrow's postseason has been no different. Cincinnati is airing it out far more in their recent games than they did for the majority of the season. The waiting game is over for Head Coach Zac Taylor; the time to unleash Joe Burrow is now.

The second-year QB has played at an elite level in Cincy's two playoff wins, and his passing volume has been off the charts over the last month. Here are his last four completion totals: 37, 30, 24, 28. He's averaging 25.1 completions per game over his last 10 games. And, he's completed at least 24 passes in seven of his last ten games.

The Chiefs have been diced up by opposing quarterbacks recently, as their secondary has taken a turn for the worse after making a midseason improvement. They've given up 25.6 completions per game over their last 10, including 27 and 29 in their two playoff games thus far. They also got demolished by Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and company when they faced off just four weeks ago, with the young signal-caller finishing the afternoon 30/39 for 446 yards and 4 touchdowns. After that level of success through the air less than a month ago, it would be insane not to expect the Bengals to lean on Burrow again this weekend.

The Bengals are in the AFC Championship game for the first time in 33 years. And they've gotten here on the back of Joey Franchise. With Patrick Mahomes on the opposite sideline and a lofty Over/Under of 54.5 points for this contest, Cincinnati should lean heavily on their explosive aerial attack on Sunday afternoon.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals AFC Championship Game Line Movement

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Article Author

NFLNBA

Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.

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