Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers NFC Championship Player Prop Pick: Can Jimmy Garoppolo Go Over?

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers NFC Championship Player Prop Pick: Can Jimmy Garoppolo Go Over?

This could literally be the last thing I ever write for OddsChecker. They give us writers a ton of freedom but I don't know if anyone has ever tested the boundaries of what's "ok" and what's not "ok" like this article is about to do. I could get easily get fired for this one. Honestly, though, I should worry more about being committed than getting fired at this point. It's actually scary to think that I actually think what I think right now. But, fortune favors the bold. We can never forget that. I've seen that on a bumper sticker before so you know it's legit. With that in mind, there isn't a more bold bet for Championship Sunday in the world than this one.

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Jimmy Garoppolo 250+ Passing Yards (+172) (Bet $100 to Win $172)

*Odds Available at FanDuel at Time of Publishing*

Obviously, FanDuel is the place to go as they have these types of bets. His "normal" number is 231.5 at DraftKings for -110 but when you bet Jimmy G, you don't do that. It's either going to be really good, or really bad. No in between.

Let me let you into what's happening in my mind and maybe that will help explain why I think this could work. We can call it an open house but in my brain. The 49ers and Rams game is going to creep up on us this Sunday. We will have just watched Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes make all our over tickets cash and we'll need something to keep the electricity on. It won't be easy, but a +172 move is a step in the right direction.

Now if you're watching this with friends, this one is an "oh yeah, I forgot I had that bet". Don't be the one that shows this ticket too early. We all know Jimmy G could easily go for 150 yards and we'll look like idiots. That could happen.

The other thing that could happen is the Rams could go up early in this one. If that happens, the 49ers will be forced to throw more than they want to. Or they could stack the box and make Jimmy G beat them. Sean McVay knows Kyle Shanahan very well and if anyone is equipped to stop the 49ers from running all day, it's the Rams. They did it last time (kind of).

The thing about Garoppolo is that he is not very good but 250+ yards is a little boy number. He's gone over that number eight times this season. One of those times was when he dropped 316 yards against the Rams. Point is, if the game script gets away from the Niners, Garoppolo could have some success against this Rams' defense.

One area the Rams struggle in is against the wide receiver position. On the season, only three teams gave up more receiving yards to the position. They almost gave up 3000 yards which is crazy. To put that into perspective, the Buffalo Bills didn't even give up 2000.

Part of the reason is that the Rams give up the big play like no other team in the NFL. They gave up 18 receptions of 40+ yards this season which was two more than anyone else. It wasn't just the long, long ones either. They gave up the chunk play too as only three teams allowed more 20+ yard pass plays.

I'm not taking this because I think Jimmy G is good. He has flaws but the environment is right for him to have what other quarterbacks call an average day. The only difference is we're getting +172 for it to happen which feels pretty generous from where I'm sitting.

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers NFC Championship Game Line Movement

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