Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers NFC Championship Player Prop Pick: Don't Rely on Jimmy Garoppolo

Player prop expert Gray Gutfreund is here with his top player prop bet for the Rams vs. 49ers NFC Championship game. He breaks down here why you should fade Jimmy Garoppolo.
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Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers NFC Championship Player Prop Pick: Don't Rely on Jimmy Garoppolo

The NFC Conference Championship game offers a rivalry to spice things up. And, San Francisco has gotten the best of the Rams over the last few seasons. The Niners have won six straight games against the Rams, dating back to 2019. However, Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't exactly been the primary reason for the team's success lately.

The Niners have turned into one of the league's most run-oriented teams offensively, so I'm going to be fading Jimmy G in Los Angeles this Sunday.

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Jimmy Garoppolo Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125) (Bet $125 to Win $100)

*Odds Available at BetMGM at Time of Publishing*

Let's start with the basics for this play. Jimmy Garoppolo has played in 17 games this season. He's only thrown multiple touchdowns in six of them. That gives us a 65% success rate on the under for this year's regular-season and postseason combined.

Now, let's look at Jimmy's postseason track record. He takes the "game manager" moniker to new heights once we reach January. He's remained under this line in all five of his career playoff games, throwing just 2 touchdowns in the postseason. In the playoffs, Jimmy's averaging just 20.4 pass attempts and 146 passing yards per game. That's a different level of bad.

Niners Head Coach Kyle Shanahan is a genius of an offensive mind, and it doesn't seem like he trusts Jimmy Garoppolo to throw the ball much in big games. So if Shanahan feels that way, I do too. In fact, that 146 yards per game number for Jimmy's playoff career? Yeah, Patrick Mahomes threw for more yards after the two-minute warning last Sunday. It's pretty clear that Garoppolo won't be making huge plays for the Niners all day.

The Rams don't present an easy matchup for the 30-year-old quarterback, either. He's thrown just 7 touchdowns to 5 interceptions across his last five games vs. Los Angeles. These teams faced off just three weeks ago, and Jimmy only threw one touchdown despite the Niners hanging 27 points on the Rams. It seems quite clear that San Francisco doesn't need Garoppolo to be great for the team to get by.

Taking a broader look at the Rams' pass defense, they allowed the 2nd-fewest passing touchdowns this season. They've held opponents below 1.5 pass touchdowns in 15 of their 19 games this season, including each of their last eight contests. The last time a QB threw multiple touchdowns against the Rams was Aaron Rodgers on November 28th, 2021.

It's been over two months since any quarterback has beaten the Rams through the air, and I don't see Garoppolo being the guy to break this trend. Look for Shanahan and the 49ers' coaching staff to hide Jimmy G as much as possible, and we should feel confident fading the worst remaining QB in the playoffs.

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers NFC Championship Game Line Movement

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Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.

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