Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals AFC Championship Player Prop Pick: Cash Big With Ja'Marr Chase
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals AFC Championship Player Prop Pick: Cash Big With Ja'Marr Chase
Last week was one of the best weeks of playoff football. This week we have two games, and somehow they are both rematches which is incredible. The Bengals at the time ruined the Chiefs' shot at the #1 seed by beating them at home 34-31, ending an eight-game winning streak as the Chiefs have won 11 out of 12 games now. With the only loss being to these Bengals. There is one man who pretty much beat the Chiefs in the first meeting. Yes, it's the NFL, and one man can't beat you, but 11-266-3 stat lines are very rare in the NFL, and this was the only one in the season.
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Ja'Marr Chase Over 83.5 Receiving Yards (-115) (Bet $115 to Win $100)
Who knew that Gabriel Davis would have an 8-201-4 stat line against these Chiefs in the playoffs. The numbers don't lie. The Chiefs may be winning, but their pass defense stinks. They were 27th in the league, giving up over 251 yards a game, and what happened in the first meeting sure showed that this is true. We had mentioned before that the Bengals didn't run the ball; they were 23rd rushing for 102.5 a game, and the Bengals haven't run for 100 yards since December 19th in Denver in a defensive game. No one expects almost 1000 yards like last week's overtime thriller, but no one's expecting the 541 yard game from the Bengals -Broncos game.
Ja'Maar Chase and Joe Burrow are buddies for life, teammates for life, and they have that special college connection that has translated into the pros. The Chiefs game won Chase the Rookie of the Year over Mac Jones. It was that good. In the last four games, Chase has been targeted 10-12-12-6 (not counting Browns since he played less than a half). That is an average of 10 targets a game, and we expect him to get about 8 catches his average over the last four games.
He averages 18 yards a catch this year and over 16 in the playoffs, so doing the math, if he catches 6 for 16, average he has 96 and 8 would be even better. We don't need 96. We just need 84, so if he catches 6 for 14, average, we will win. We feel he will do a lot better, but the Chiefs will not allow him to duplicate the awesome game he had last time, but when you are the #1 target on a team that can't run and is playing a team that can't stop the pass, in a game that will have offensive fireworks we will go with the #1 weapon this team has.
If the Bengals are losing, they will throw, and Chase is the guy Burrow is always looking for. Chase has broken 100 in his last four (minus the Browns game), and we expect another 100-yard outing. Take over 83.5 receiving yards for Ja'Marr Chase, and let's watch the Rookie of the Year show us why he wears #1.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals AFC Championship Game Line Movement
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