Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers NFC Championship Pick: Tease Your Way to a Win This Sunday
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers NFC Championship Pick: Tease Your Way to a Win This Sunday
With Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay and Tom Brady and Tampa Bay, who would have thought that Stafford and the Rams and Jimmy G and the 49ers would be the NFC Championship game? Not many, I guarantee you, and the one-liners we will be saying after the game are dominance continues or two out of three ain't bad, but it's not good enough in the NFL. Can the 49ers sweep the Rams or win their 7th -- yes 7th in a row against the Rams? I think the 49ers own Sean McVay at this point, especially after the 17-0 choke last game. Or will McVay and his Rams finally get off the shneid and win in the most important game these teams have played in years? Let's get to it.
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We aren't going to pick the winner or the total. We will tease this game and get the best value based on what we have seen this year. We have two games to look at this year. In the first one, the 49ers blew out the Rams 31-10. Stafford threw two interceptions, and the game was never in doubt, and as you see, 41 points were scored. In the second game, the 49ers were down 17-3 at halftime, and suddenly they changed their game, the turnovers happened again for the Rams, and the 49ers won again. So we have a team that won twice this year, both as a dog and sure we could take the 3.5 but let's take the 10.5, giving us two scores and protecting us from losing by a touchdown. The 49ers have only lost by double digits twice this year in a fluke to Arizona by 14 and the Colts by 12. Getting double-digits gives us a much better chance of covering and winning.
We look at the total now, and we mentioned the first game. They got 41. The second went to overtime, but with 26 seconds left in the game, it was also 41 points. There could be some crazy stuff at the end of the game, as we saw in last week's Rams-Bucs game, and we feel this total is pretty spot-on, and this game will land in the 40's based on our model. Why not get the cushion? Both previous games got to 41, and we feel this game will as well because the 49ers won't be playing in a blizzard, and their offense won't be held to two field goals by the Rams defense since they haven't all year. We saw it last week, and we saw it in the previous 49ers game. The Rams defense loosens up, and that is why we will get to 41 points. We will tease the total to 38.5 with the extra touchdown.
Our play for this game is 49ers +10.5 and over 38.5 in a 7 point teaser, as this protects us from losing by a touchdown and gives us the cushion of the 41 point threshold, which will be important in this game. So let's tease our way to a victory with the dog and over getting an extra 7.
NFC Championship Pick
7 POINT TEASER
- 49ers +10.5 + Over 38 (-130)Â (Bet $130 to Win $100)
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers NFC Championship Game Line Movement
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