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NFL expert Mike Spector offers his best bets for player props involving Matthew Stafford for Super Bowl LVI.

Super Bowl 2022 Player Prop Bets: Expect Matthew Stafford to Have a Big Game Through the Air

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is the odds-on favorite at +100 to win the Super Bowl LVI MVP Award. However, many will not consider those odds too egregious, considering the Rams are -200 moneyline favorites to win the game and that nine of the last 12 players to win the Super Bowl MVP were quarterbacks.

If one prefers to wager on player props for a different spin on watching the big game, there is no shortage of props regarding each team’s quarterback. How do Stafford’s lofty MVP odds factor into our thinking about his player props?

This article breaks down our favorite prop bets involving Super Bowl MVP favorite Matthew Stafford.

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Matthew Stafford Super Bowl 2022 Player Props

Matthew Stafford OVER 278.5 Passing Yards (-115) (Bet $115 to Win $100)

This postseason, Stafford has been on fire, averaging 313.7 passing yards per game and posting a 6-1 TD-INT ratio. And while Stafford has benefitted from an all-time great season by wide receiver Cooper Kupp, fellow wideout Odell Beckham Jr. is seemingly emerging at just the right time.

Beckham Jr. is coming off his first 100-yard receiving game since Week 6 of 2019. He totaled 113 yards against the 49ers and gave Stafford a much-needed reliable threat on the perimeter after tight end Tyler Higbee left the game with an injury.

Stafford’s numbers are off the charts this postseason when targeting his top two wideouts. On passes to Kupp, Stafford has a 76% completion percentage, has thrown for 386 yards, and posted a 4-1 TD-INT ratio. When targeting Beckham Jr., Stafford’s completion percentage is 83%, has thrown for 236 yards, and has one touchdown to zero interceptions. Beckham Jr., in particular, has been a consistent red zone threat since joining the Rams, catching five touchdown passes in eight regular season games while getting adjusted to a new offense.

Though the Bengals are coming off a solid second-half defensive performance against Kansas City, one could argue they benefited from having seen Patrick Mahomes up close and personal just four weeks prior. Cincinnati ranked 26th in the league in pass defense in the regular season, and that is something we expect Rams head coach Sean McVay to exploit.

Los Angeles had an ultra-conservative game plan in their 2018 Super Bowl appearance against the Patriots. McVay will not make that same mistake twice and will unleash his prized off-season acquisition in the biggest game of his career.

Matthew Stafford OVER 24.5 Completions (-120) (Bet $120 to Win $100)

Similar to our logic with the over on Stafford’s passing yards, we like for him to hit the over on completions as well. Stafford completed 31 and 28 passes, respectively, over the last two weeks. And it could be argued the only reason he didn’t put up gaudier numbers in the Wild Card Round against Arizona was that they raced out to a commanding early lead, making the passing game not as much of a necessity. 

If Cincinnati chooses to play aggressively on defense, Stafford has proven unflappable against the blitz. Including playoffs, Stafford ranks first in QBR, third in completion percentage, and third in passing touchdowns. 

Stafford has recorded at least 294 passing yards in each of his last four games against AFC opponents. Since we like for him to have a big game through the air, that would naturally lend itself to him completing a bunch of passes. Stafford has completed at least 65.6% of his passes in eight of his last nine games, which bodes well for his productivity when a pass play is called.

Matthew Stafford OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-140) (Bet $140 to Win $100)

We do not only have love for Stafford, as we expect him to throw at least one interception. Yes, he has drastically cut down on turnovers in the postseason, throwing just one interception in three games. However, only focusing on Stafford’s postseason success would ignore the large 17-game regular-season sample. Stafford finished the regular season tied with Trevor Lawrence for the most interceptions (17).

The Bengals changed their defensive looks against the Chiefs, going from zone and two-high safety looks in the first half to a more aggressive man-to-man defense in the second half. As a result, it seemed to fluster Patrick Mahomes, and he uncharacteristically threw two interceptions. Zac Taylor and the Bengals defensive coaching staff may have a trick or two up their sleeves in the Super Bowl, and it is worth the -140 juice to expect Stafford to be responsible for one interception.

Matthew Stafford Super Bowl 2022 Player Prop Picks

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Line Movement

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Article Author


Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest


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