Super Bowl 2022 Player Prop Bets: Ja'Marr Chase to be Limited
Super Bowl 2022 Player Prop Bets: Ja'Marr Chase to be Limited
Remember when the Cincinnati Bengals were widely ridiculed for selecting Ja’Marr Chase with the fifth overall pick in the NFL Draft, as many teams believed they should have chosen OT Penei Sewell with Joe Burrow coming off an ACL injury? How do all those naysayers look now?
Chase has done nothing but smash records in one of the best rookie seasons of all-time. He now holds the record for the most receiving yards by any wide receiver in their rookie season, the record for most receiving yards in a single game by a rookie, and already has the most receiving yards (255) by a rookie through the first three playoff games.
Will Ja’Marr Chase culminate his incredible first season with another massive game in the Super Bowl? Here is a look at our top three Super Bowl player prop bets involving the Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver.
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Ja’Marr Chase Longest Reception UNDER 26.5 Yards (-110)(Bet $110 to win $100)
Ja’Marr Chase has recorded at least 109 receiving yards in four of his last six games, which will make his over/under of 79.5 yards seem modest to most bettors. However, with too many variables at play for that prop bet (game script, time of possession, etc.), we prefer the safer play of the under for Chase’s longest reception.
Chase quickly emerged as the team’s biggest home run threat, as his longest reception in each of the team’s first seven games was at least 34 yards. In addition, Chase’s longest catch in his three postseason games exceeded this projected total twice. However, Chase’s longest catch has gone under this projected total in nine of their last 13 games, including the playoffs. Thus, that suggests teams are keeping a high safety on his side with more regularity and are not allowing him the space to hit many home run plays.
Another reason to like the under on this prop is that Los Angeles’ ferocious pass rush will not allow Joe Burrow much time to throw. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, the Rams rank No. 1 in pass rush win rate while the Bengals are 30th in pass block win rate. Los Angeles is pressuring quarterbacks on 32% of dropbacks this postseason, while Cincinnati’s 55.7% pass block win rate ranks 11th out of 14 teams.
With Burrow seemingly having less time than usual to throw, he will not connect with Chase on many vertical routes. And if Chase needs to rely on yards after the catch to cash this over, we are comfortable backing the over in his longest reception prop.
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Ja’Marr Chase UNDER 5.5 Receptions (+115)(Bet $100 to win $115)
This bet is all about one man: Jalen Ramsey. The Rams cornerback is one of the game’s best cover corners, and we expect head coach Sean McVay to trust him in shadow coverage with the Cincinnati rookie. While Chase has totaled at least six receptions in two of the team’s three playoff games, he was also held under six catches 11 times in 17 regular season games.
Los Angeles’ defense has allowed an NFL-low 18.8% conversion percentage on third down this postseason. Thus, if Cincinnati cannot move the chains with regularity, that means less plays runs and fewer chances for Chase to rack up receptions.
If we are being offered plus odds on a wager that has cashed 60% of the time, we have to take that bet, especially with Chase lining up against an elite cornerback.
Jersey Number of First Touchdown Scorer: UNDER 23.5 (-130) (Bet $130 to win $100)
We are cheating a little bit here, with this bet not directly tied to just Ja’Marr Chase. However, suppose one takes the under here. In that case, these are the players that could potentially cash this bet for you as the first touchdown scorer of the game (assuming an offensive player scores): Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, Cam Akers, Odell Beckham Jr., Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, and Ben Skowronek.
This list includes four of the top five shortest odds among the “anytime touchdown scorer” odds. Since the over for this bet is listed as +110, we do not mind the juice we are laying at -130 for a player with a low jersey number (like Chase) to score the first touchdown.