Super Bowl 2022: Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Best Alternate Spread Plays

Handicapper Jason Yamaguchi offers his best ways to bet on alternate spreads for the Super Bowl matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.
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Super Bowl 2022: Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Best Alternate Spread Plays

The NFL playoffs have provided a tremendous amount of entertainment, with each of the divisional and conference championship games coming down to the wire. Now, we have arrived at the pinnacle of the season—Super Bowl LVI. The Cincinnati Bengals, who shocked the world by knocking off the Chiefs in Kansas City last week, will represent the AFC. On the other side, the Los Angeles Rams, who beat the defending champion Buccaneers and two divisional rivals en route to winning the NFC, will play host.

The line for this game has been whittled down since it was released by the books; it has settled around Rams -4.5/Bengals +4.5 at -110 odds on each side. Some books still have it at Rams -4, so that is a number worth seeking out if you're looking to take LA on the spread. However, if you aren't a fan of this line, the books also take bets on alternate spreads at different odds. Let's take a look at a few potential spots to find value by betting on alternate spreads.

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Rams Alternate Point Spreads

Some of you are probably quite high on the Rams heading into the Super Bowl, and there's a good case for their side of things. Statistically, the Rams are clear of the Bengals in most key categories—LA is higher in Yards/play, Opponent Yards/play, Red Zone Conversion rate, Red Zone Stop rate, and DVOA. This also seems like a nice matchup for their defense; many expect the Rams' front of Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd to feast against a struggling Bengals offensive line that surrendered nine sacks in the divisional round.

If you believe in the Rams' ability to limit explosive plays and get home on Burrow, it might be a good idea to take the better odds at a juiced number. A couple key spots I would consider: Rams -6.5 (+120), Rams -9.5 (+190). Both of these land just short of the key numbers 7 and 10, which would decrease the chances of losing by the hook. For those who are extremely confident in the Rams, either of these offer higher upside than giving 4.5 points on -110 odds.

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Bengals Alternate Point Spreads

On the other hand, the Bengals have a relatively compelling bull case themselves. After defeating the Raiders at home to grab their first playoff win since 1990, the Bengals went on the road, knocking out the 1 and 2 seeds in the AFC. Now, they look to complete their magical run by winning their first Super Bowl in franchise history.

What is their path to success in this game? Likely the same factors that have gotten them to this point—sound defense, solid play from their studs on offense (namely, Burrow and Chase), and winning the turnover battle. I want to emphasize that last point because the Bengals beat the Titans and Chiefs by, above all else, forcing turnovers in key spots. Stafford has been excellent through his first three playoff games as a Ram, but he has been prone to throwing horrific interceptions in the past. If the Bengals can throw the Rams' offense off script and force Stafford to improvise, it may create opportunities for Cincinnati to pick him off.

If you believe that the Bengals can execute this gameplay and win outright, it could be advantageous to refuse the points. The Bengals are +160 on the moneyline and +170 at -1. Both of those are options I would consider if you want to back Cincy. If you're really confident in their chances, you can take them at +190 to cover -2.5. I wouldn't recommend giving any more points than this—the Rams are favored by 4.5 points for a reason, and taking the Bengals to cover anywhere past the key number of 3 seems foolish.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Line Movement

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Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.

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