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Handicapper Jason Yamaguchi takes a look at the best value bet for the first score method prop in Super Bowl LVI.
ANALYSIS

Super Bowl 2022: Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals First Score Method

The NFL season has reached its ultimate conclusion—Super Bowl LVI. The Cincinnati Bengals, who defeated the Chiefs as 7.5 point underdogs last week in KC, will represent the AFC. They will be facing the Los Angeles Rams, a team that finally got the monkey off their back last week by snapping a streak of six consecutive losses to the 49ers with a 20-17 win.

As always, the sportsbooks have released a massive number of props for the big game, with everything from the national anthem's length to the color of Snoop Dogg's shoes available for betting. One specific prop that's worth a look is the method of the first scoring play. This prop allows bettors to place bets on which team will score first and by what scoring method (touchdown vs. field goal vs. safety). Some sportsbooks also allow bettors to split the 'touchdown' category up further into rushing vs. passing (for example, Bengals Passing TD will be the first score at +375 odds). Here is my best play for this prop category.

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Cincinnati Bengals Field Goal (+400) (Bet $100 to win $400)

This is my favorite play for a few reasons. First, Cincinnati's history this year suggests that this is a fairly likely outcome. Their first scoring play was a field goal in two of their three playoff games this year, one of which was the first scoring play of the entire game (for either team, which is the condition of this prop).

Another thing worth noting is that their kicker Evan McPherson has been, to put it mildly, sensational. He is a perfect 12/12 on field goals in these playoffs, and 4/4 on extra points. Three of those field goals were from over 50 yards, and two of them were game-clinchers (against TEN and KC). This means that the Bengals will likely trust McPherson enough to potentially attempt a long kick on their first drive should it stall, which increases the chances that their first scoring play is a field goal.

Finally, the Rams have the 12th ranked Red Zone defense, while the Bengals have just the 20th ranked Red Zone offense. Based on this, there is a solid chance that the Bengals will be forced to settle for field goals a couple times this game. Let's hope that one of those comes on the first drive of the game.

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Line Movement

Best First Score Method Pick

Article Author

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Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.

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