Super Bowl 2022 Kickoff Prediction: Yes, We're Betting on a Kickoff Prop
Super Bowl 2022 Kickoff Prediction: Yes, We're Betting on a Kickoff Prop
Pick: Outcome of opening kickoff to be returned (+110) (Bet $200 to Win $220)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of writing
I know what you might be thinking, "TGB, have you lost your mind?!" I wouldn’t blame you for that question but allow me to explain why I don’t just like this play -- I actually love it. I paid attention to the initial lines these were posted at and they opened at -170 on most books. More than likely the books saw the touchback rate for both Matt Gay and Evan McPherson and equated a touchback has over a 60% chance of happening. In any game but the Superbowl that would suffice, but not on the big game.
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Something that has been brought to my attention recently is the type of ball that the NFL uses on the opening kickoff. Pat McAfee stated on his podcast that for the Super Bowl the ball used for the opening kickoff is only used once so the ball is brand new. For every game that isn’t the Super Bowl we see players boot balls that have been used and worn down allowing the ball to travel further. The stats behind this phenomenon most definitely back this up. The Super Bowl has featured a return on the opening kickoff in 26 of the last 28 games.
There are people who view this prop and would argue about the 26 of the last 28 due to the NFL moving up the kickoff in 2011 to avoid injuries. However, after the NFL put that into action, we have still seen 8 of 10 kickoffs be returned. All of the numbers back this prop up and what's more fun than betting on the first play of the game?
Make some money for yourself before your friends and family can even fill their plates --that’s inspirational if you ask me.
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The last factor I will address is that this game will be taking place at Sofi Stadium. We will see no weather conditions that will help out the kicker make up for the ball not being in kicking conditions. Last year, we saw Harrison Butker, who has an absolute boot even fail to do so. This bet is one of those where you just trust the data and the former players when they speak about it. We’re not going to try to outsmart anyone, just trust the bet at a -105 price that has well over a 90% hit rate and let it play out. This is the big game so we’ll go two units here and try to open the night with a nice payday.