Tyler Boyd Super Bowl 2022 Prop Picks and Best Bets
Tyler Boyd Super Bowl 2022 Prop Picks and Best Bets
Super Bowl 56 is littered with stud wide receivers, from Los Angeles’ Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. to Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. But while the top two wideouts on each team are getting all the attention, are we overlooking some of these teams’ secondary weapons?
Once upon a time in the not-so-distant past, Tyler Boyd was the top receiving option for the Bengals, especially when A.J. Green missed the entire 2019 season. Boyd posted consecutive 1,000-yard seasons in 2018 and 2019 but has seemingly taken a back seat in this offense with Ja’Marr Chase’s immediate emergence. Will Boyd play a more prominent role in Sunday’s matchup against the Rams?
Here is a look at our top three Super Bowl player prop bets involving Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd.
Tyler Boyd OVER 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110) (Bet $110 to Win $100)
Tyler Boyd has not topped 26 yards in any of the three playoff games this postseason and has not had at least 42 receiving yards in any game since December 26th. So why would oddsmakers make his projected total so high?
For starters, perhaps oddsmakers think Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey shuts down star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. Ramsey has had his four highest shadow rates of opposing No. 1 wide receivers since Week 12. First, he shadowed Mike Evans 69% of the time in the Divisional Round. That was followed by a 58% shadow rate of Justin Jefferson in Week 16, 56% of DK Metcalf in Week 15, and shadowing Davante Adams 56% of the time in Week 12. In the biggest game of the season, it is reasonable to expect his highest shadow rate yet on Chase.
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Though Boyd has gone four consecutive games with at most 36 yards receiving, he averaged 80.3 yards per game and had at least 55 yards receiving in each of the four games prior.
With an extra week to prepare for this game, the Rams coaching staff is likely thinking of whatever ways they can to limit Chase. However, that also means the Bengals coaching staff has more time to come up with new wrinkles offensively, and we expect them to involve Tyler Boyd more than they have in any postseason game.
Tyler Boyd UNDER 8.5 Yards on His First Reception (-110) (Bet $110 to Win $100)
We are playing the law of averages here that Boyd will not break off a big gain on his first receptions. He has 62 yards on 10 catches this postseason, which averages to 6.2 yards per reception. There are many ways we can win this bet, like Cincinnati going to Boyd in a second or third-and-short situation where they are simply looking to move the chains. While we like Boyd’s over on his receiving yards prop, it is possible he does not get the majority of those yards until the team is trailing late and needing to pass to catch up, or when they are in their two-minute drill. But for Boyd’s first reception, we expect it to be an anti-climatic short gain.
Tyler Boyd Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+275) (Bet $100 to Win $275)
Similar to our logic of liking Boyd’s over on his yardage total because of the attention paid to Chase, we like Boyd to reap the benefits of more red zone looks. Especially with tight end C.J. Uzomah likely to be less than 100% if he does play, Boyd becomes an intriguing end zone target. He has scored touchdowns in four of his last six games, so one could argue that these +275 odds are generous.
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With how much Los Angeles’ feared pass rush is expected to harass Joe Burrow, that would lead to Burrow being on the move and scrambling more than usual. That is not a bad thing for Cincinnati’s passing game, as Burrow ranked first in QBR, third in passing touchdowns, and first in yards per attempt on throws outside the numbers this season. Chase was a big beneficiary of that, as he had an NFL-high 12 touchdown receptions on throws outside the numbers. However, that also bodes well for Boyd’s red zone opportunities, and the +275 odds for him to score a touchdown are appealing.