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Bengals running back Joe Mixon has had a stellar season but can he continue his impressive run or should you fade Cincinnati's ground game? Player prop expert Gray Gutfreund tells us here.

Joe Mixon Super Bowl 2022 Props: Fade Cincinnati's Ground Game

The Cincinnati Bengals haven't thrived offensively in the postseason, but they've gotten the job done well enough to reach the big game this Sunday. Their recent success has been heavily reliant on Joe Burrow - the complete opposite of their early-season offensive philosophy. Cincinnati is less run-oriented now, and a matchup against an elite Rams front won't make matters any easier for Joe Mixon this weekend.

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Joe Mixon Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (-110) (Bet $110 to Win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings and BetMGM at Time of Publishing*

Joe Mixon had a stellar outing in the AFC Conference Championship game, rumbling for 88 rushing yards on 21 carries. Cincy's win over the Chiefs granted Mixon his first game with more than 65 rushing yards in over eight weeks. It was Mixon's best overall performance since a Week 12 win against the Steelers all the way back in November.

The 5th-year running back is averaging just 58.9 rushing yards per game over Cincinnati's last eight contests, down from his 75.3 season-long figure. He's still seeing 17 rushing attempts per game during this stretch, but gigantic volume may be difficult to gather on Sunday.

Mixon has appeared in 6 Bengals losses this season. He's putting up per-game numbers of 15.7 carries and 51.8 yards per game when Cincy falls short. Obviously, this under could still cash if the Bengals find a way to squeak out a win. However, the potential negative game script that could come with a loss would go a long way in all but guaranteeing a rough outing for Mixon on the ground.

The Los Angeles Rams run defense, led by Aaron Donald and a star-studded defensive line, has been spectacular. They allowed just 4.0 yards per attempt (5th best) and 103.2 yards per game (6th best) in the regular season. And, they've only gotten better as the season has drawn to a close. Here are their opponents' rushing lines in the playoffs:

  • Arizona: 18 Attempts, 61 Yards
  • Tampa Bay: 14 Attempts, 51 Yards
  • San Francisco: 20 Attempts, 50 Yards

LA's NFC championship game shutdown of the Niners' rushing attack is undoubtedly the most impressive showing of all. Elijah Mitchell averaged 91.9 rushing yards per game in his seven appearances since mid-season, but he was held to just 20 yards on 11 carries against Los Angeles. The Rams are allowing just 3.68 yards per tote over their last 10 games, placing them squarely in the top five during this stretch.

The Bengals' offensive line hasn't been great by any stretch this season, and they'll have their hands full against the Rams with Super Bowl 56 on the line. I'm fading Joe Mixon and the Cincinnati ground game, as I don't envision a big rushing day for the Bengals.

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Line Movement

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Article Author


Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.


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