Odds format
United States
Share to Facebook
Share to Twitter
Copy Link
Super Bowl player prop pick and prediction from handicapper John Hyslop. If you're looking for a Super Bowl 2022 player prop pick, we've got you covered. Slop is backing Burrow, but it's his feet, not his arm, that give you the best value.

Super Bowl Player Prop Pick: Remember That Joe Burrow Can Run

It's probably time we start nailing down some Super Bowl plays that actually have a chance to win. Sure it's fun to throw some cash on purple Gatorade or a kick to hit the uprights but at some point, we need to fund the dumb bets. I have the perfect way; smart bets. It won't take many to get us where we need to be either. All we have to do is find a smart bet, then risk however much I want to bet on dumb bets. That way, when the smart bet wins, it covers all my dumb bets. This is just math showing us it's power. It's beautiful.

Check out John Hyslop's printable Super Bowl prop sheet and your chance to win an NFL jersey of your choice here

Joe Burrow Over 10.5 rushing yards @ -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Everyone pretty much has the same numbers but DraftKings beat them all with -110. Both FanDuel and BetMGM are hanging -115 so they're not far off which makes them an option. This number was 8.5 earlier in the week so we're not getting the best of it but that's just how the game goes. What are we just not supposed to bet it at the worse number? That's not an option.

The haters are all going to say that Burrow only went over this number six times this season. Those guys are right. We can't argue that but this is the Super Bowl. If there was ever a game where stats don't matter, it's this one. They just don't.

Don't think I'm hating on the stat nerds by saying that either. The stats back me up here and I always say, if the stats back you up, you should use them. I'm not even going to use the fact that only 14 teams allowed more rushing yards to the quarterback position this season than the Rams. That doesn't sound like much but when you consider only three teams saw fewer quarterback rushing attempts, it means something. Still, not using the stats on this one though.

You see, this is the Super Bowl and the Los Angeles Rams have a stupid good defensive front. They are highly likely to just run over the Bengals' offensive line in this game. We shouldn't shame the Bengals for that though. You try blocking Aaron Donald and Von Miller. That can't be easy.

Still, do we think Burrow is just going to give up? No way. In all his biggest games, he's not afraid to just run. Back in college in his senior season against Alabama he took off 14 times for 64 yards. Against Georgia in the SEC Title game he ran 11 times for 41 yards. In the Natty against Clemson he went 14 for 58. I know this isn't college but the point is, this kid isn't afraid to run when he needs to. We won't see many designed runs but scrambles are fair game.

Last week he did the same thing he did in college. It was win at all costs even if it meant running for his life. Against the Chiefs he was forced into runs five different times. He was up for the challenge because he turned those carries into 25 yards. A couple of the attempts were for critical first downs too. This Rams front is better than anything he saw in Kansas City so I'd expect more of the same in terms of happy feet. If that happens, he should gain at least 11 yards on the ground.

Article Author


John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.


Almost there!

We are loading your bets, and they will be here in a second.