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LightningLocks is back with his best player prop bet on Rams running back Sony Michel in the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl 2022 Prop Picks: Make Money on Sony Michel

It's almost time for the Super Bowl. Will 56 be entertaining or a blowout? What will happen with Cinderella against Hollywood? Well, we know one thing: you have to trust the best players, and you have to establish a running game if you want to win because both have explosive offenses.

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Sony Michel Over 4.5 Carries (-120) (Bet $120 to Win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*

We are going to look at the Rams offense. This team was 25th in the NFL, not good when 32 teams are averaging 99 yards a game rushing. In the playoffs, they have had 70, 73, and 140 for slightly over 94 a game, so not far off their average. This year, the Bengals were the 5th best run defense but still gave up over 102 yards a game. In the playoffs so far, they have given up 116, 65, and 83 for 88 a game which is better than their average. Let's remember though both defenses know what the other team is good and bad at, they had two weeks to dissect this game, and we feel that running will be the key in this game and whoever establishes it will win.

The Rams have three running backs today. They activated Darrell Henderson, who had one attempt on December 26, 2021, before getting hurt and hasn't played ball since. Do you think the Rams can trust a guy who hasn't played in 6 weeks in the biggest game of the year? We don't think so, nor would we, because if you fumble, you just cost them the Super Bowl, and there is nowhere to hide. Option number 2 for the Rams is Cam Akers, who had five -- yes five attempts all year as he was hurt, but he has led the team in attempts and yards in the playoffs. The problem is, though, he is fumble prone, and he averaged 2.8 yards a carry. That is not going to get you a lot of attempts.

Before we get to Michel, let's also look at some other important props. The Rams Over/Under for players with a rushing attempt is 4.5, so we count the three running backs and either Stafford or Jefferson on a trick play but probably only four guys. We also look and see that the Over/Under for the game is 108.5 rushing yards, so that's a lot of yards that a guy just activated, and a guy who didn't play all year won't get himself.

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So we are going to look at Sony Michel. Let's remember that Michel played for the Patriots before this and was on the Super Bowl team even though he didn't play. This man also has only four fumbles in his career. He can be trusted with the ball, and he has been in the playoffs and the regular season by two teams. He had 24 attempts in 3 three games and has the best average per carry. That's eight carries in a game, and we only need 5 to win today. He got over 12 carries a game in the regular season, but he only started 7 of those, so he would have gotten even more if he had.

Remember, we only need five attempts or carries to win this prop, and when you have the guy who got you there, the guy who doesn't have fumble issues, and a guy who has been to the Super Bowl. This is the guy the Rams should, and we feel they will trust. This team is projected to get 108 yards, but Michel has averaged eight carries and 26 yards during the playoffs, and if he does, guess what? We will win this prop. Take over 4.5 carries/attempts for Sony Michel, and let's hope the Rams establish a running game and Michel is a huge part of it. The best part about this prop is one good drive, and it can win, and if he gets negative yards, it doesn't hurt us either. Let's win this one early and enjoy the rest of the game.

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Line Movement

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